2026 US Senate Forecast
Last Updated: Wednesday, October 15, 2025
Days
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…until Election Day
49 47 2 Democrat
50 + VP FOR MAJORITY
Republican 51
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| State | Race Rating | Projected Margin | Democrat | Republican | PVI | Polls | Experts | Markets | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | Safe GOP | R+24.9 | 36.9% | 586,383 | 61.9% | 982,020 | R+29.3 | TBD | R+23.8 | R+20.5 | |||
| Alaska | Likely GOP | R+9.1 | 43.4% | 120,478 | 52.5% | 145,625 | R+12.5 | TBD | R+12.1 | R+5.9 | |||
| Arkansas | Safe GOP | R+26.4 | 35.7% | 336,816 | 62.1% | 585,699 | R+29.8 | TBD | R+24.2 | R+20.6 | |||
| Colorado | Safe DEM | D+14.0 | 55.8% | 1,459,183 | 41.8% | 1,092,629 | R+10.8 | TBD | R+13.2 | R+13.0 | |||
| Delaware | Safe DEM | D+16.1 | 57.3% | 206,797 | 41.2% | 148,647 | R+15.3 | TBD | R+15.1 | R+14.1 | |||
| Florida | Likely GOP | R+9.9 | 44.6% | 3,777,997 | 54.4% | 4,616,863 | R+9.6 | TBD | R+12.9 | R+8.6 | |||
| Georgia | Lean DEM | D+2.9 | 51.0% | 2,106,093 | 48.0% | 1,985,145 | R+2.4 | TBD | R+0.2 | R+6.5 | |||
| Idaho | Safe GOP | R+30.7 | 33.0% | 215,564 | 63.7% | 416,060 | R+34.8 | TBD | R+27.9 | R+24.9 | |||
| Illinois | Safe DEM | D+13.6 | 55.7% | 2,389,580 | 42.2% | 1,808,490 | R+12.4 | TBD | R+13.8 | R+15.8 | |||
| Iowa | Likely GOP | R+7.0 | 45.6% | 589,584 | 52.6% | 680,375 | R+11.7 | TBD | R+8.4 | R+4.7 | |||
| Kansas | Safe GOP | R+12.0 | 43.0% | 449,383 | 55.0% | 574,695 | R+16.5 | TBD | R+15.7 | R+11.2 | |||
| Kentucky | Safe GOP | R+24.6 | 37.0% | 577,809 | 61.5% | 962,262 | R+29.4 | TBD | R+23.9 | R+19.4 | |||
| Louisiana | Safe GOP | R+17.3 | 40.6% | 581,521 | 57.9% | 829,721 | R+21.5 | TBD | R+18.6 | R+10.9 | |||
| Maine | Tilt D | D+2.1 | 50.0% | 343,706 | 47.9% | 329,176 | R+7.1 | TBD | R+0.3 | R+4.2 | |||
| Massachusetts | Safe DEM | D+26.8 | 62.2% | 1,630,599 | 35.4% | 927,297 | R+27.4 | TBD | R+22.5 | R+21.0 | |||
| Michigan | Tilt D | D+1.9 | 50.1% | 2,243,104 | 48.2% | 2,156,610 | R+0.3 | TBD | R+0.0 | R+7.7 | |||
| Minnesota | Likely DEM | D+7.2 | 52.4% | 1,365,524 | 45.2% | 1,177,122 | R+4.8 | TBD | R+6.8 | R+11.3 | |||
| Mississippi | Safe GOP | R+18.6 | 40.2% | 321,663 | 58.8% | 470,971 | R+21.6 | TBD | R+18.7 | R+14.8 | |||
| Montana | Safe GOP | R+15.5 | 40.7% | 205,931 | 56.2% | 284,281 | R+19.0 | TBD | R+17.1 | R+11.1 | |||
| Nebraska | Safe GOP | R+14.2 | 42.0% | 297,120 | 56.1% | 397,525 | R+20.6 | TBD | R+15.7 | R+10.3 | |||
| New Hampshire | Lean DEM | D+5.0 | 51.7% | 325,422 | 46.7% | 294,008 | R+3.6 | TBD | R+4.0 | R+8.8 | |||
| New Jersey | Safe DEM | D+12.7 | 55.5% | 1,610,278 | 42.9% | 1,243,271 | R+8.8 | TBD | R+12.6 | R+15.7 | |||
| New Mexico | Safe DEM | D+10.6 | 54.2% | 390,750 | 43.6% | 314,183 | R+7.4 | TBD | R+12.3 | R+9.3 | |||
| North Carolina | Tilt D | D+1.5 | 50.1% | 1,996,479 | 48.6% | 1,938,347 | R+2.9 | TBD | R+0.2 | R+4.0 | |||
| Ohio | Lean GOP | R+4.4 | 47.2% | 2,056,623 | 51.6% | 2,250,643 | R+10.2 | TBD | R+4.6 | R+2.8 | |||
| Oklahoma | Safe GOP | R+29.5 | 34.6% | 422,310 | 64.1% | 781,569 | R+34.2 | TBD | R+27.5 | R+24.5 | |||
| Oregon | Safe DEM | D+16.4 | 56.5% | 1,119,183 | 40.1% | 795,048 | R+14.4 | TBD | R+14.7 | R+16.1 | |||
| Rhode Island | Safe DEM | D+16.3 | 57.0% | 213,029 | 40.6% | 151,998 | R+15.8 | TBD | R+15.4 | R+15.2 | |||
| South Carolina | Safe GOP | R+13.7 | 42.5% | 782,987 | 56.2% | 1,035,668 | R+16.1 | TBD | R+15.5 | R+10.6 | |||
| South Dakota | Safe GOP | R+25.5 | 36.2% | 132,389 | 61.7% | 225,856 | R+29.1 | TBD | R+23.7 | R+19.7 | |||
| Tennessee | Safe GOP | R+24.7 | 37.0% | 728,342 | 61.7% | 1,213,875 | R+27.7 | TBD | R+22.7 | R+19.2 | |||
| Texas | Likely GOP | R+7.2 | 45.7% | 4,038,493 | 53.0% | 4,678,421 | R+11.5 | TBD | R+8.4 | R+6.5 | |||
| Virginia | Safe DEM | D+11.6 | 54.9% | 1,772,483 | 43.3% | 1,398,927 | R+6.2 | TBD | R+12.1 | R+12.8 | |||
| West Virginia | Safe GOP | R+37.3 | 30.4% | 161,303 | 67.7% | 358,984 | R+41.1 | TBD | R+32.9 | R+33.1 | |||
| Wyoming | Safe GOP | R+41.5 | 27.8% | 57,506 | 69.3% | 143,159 | R+45.4 | TBD | R+36.4 | R+39.2 |
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