2026 US Senate Forecast
2026 Senate Forecast
Last Updated: Friday, February 6, 2025, 11:08 AM ET
Latest Rating Changes:
Jan. 25: Iowa Likely to Lean Republican
Jan. 12: Alaska Likely to Lean Republican
…until Election Day
49 47 2 Democrat (+2 seat gain)
50 + VP FOR MAJORITY
(-2 seat loss) Republican 51
No election (34)
No election (31)
2026 US Senate Forecast Data Table:
Click on a state name to open its page.
Sources:
49
Democrat
50 + VP FOR MAJORITY
51
Republican
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2026 US Senate Forecast Data Table:
Click on a state name to open its page.
Sources:
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Congressional
- State-by-state forecast dashboard
- Projected margins and vote shares
- Poll averages
- EP’s Partisan Voting Index
- Betting market tracker
Presidential
- All congressional features
- Individual race pages
- Detailed state information
- County map & predictions
- Demographic data
Executive
- All Presidential/Congressional features
- Exclusive access to master spreadsheet
- Early updates
- Priority member support
Reliable Forecasting, Proven Over Time
A Track Record of Accuracy Across Election Cycles
Since 2020, my election forecasts have consistently delivered unmatched accuracy across both presidential and Senate races.Â
I measure success not by headlines, but by data. Explore my verified track record below to see how my accuracy has evolved across multiple election cycles — a reflection of my commitment to rigorous analysis and evidence-based forecasting.
Subscription tiers:
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Congressional $2
State-by-state forecast dashboard with projected margins, vote shares, poll averages, EP’s Partisan Voting Index, and betting market tracker.
-
Presidential $5
Includes all Congressional features plus individual race pages, detailed state data, county maps, predictions, and demographic insights.
-
Executive $10
Includes all Presidential and Congressional features plus master spreadsheet access, early updates, and priority member support.
Reliable Forecasting, Proven Over Time
A Track Record of Accuracy Across Election Cycles
Since 2020, my election forecasts have consistently delivered unmatched accuracy across both presidential and Senate races.Â
I measure success not by headlines, but by data. Explore my verified track record below to see how my accuracy has evolved across multiple election cycles — a reflection of my commitment to rigorous analysis and evidence-based forecasting.