2026 Maine Senate Forecast

2026 Maine Senate Forecast

Last Updated: Friday, March 27, 2025, 1:40 PM ET

Race Note:

Incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins, first elected in 1996, is seeking a sixth term in 2026. Maine is the only Republican-held Senate seat up for election in 2026 in a state carried by Kamala Harris. Collins remains the lone Republican representing a New England state at the federal level and has consistently outperformed other GOP candidates in Maine. In 2020, she won re-election by about eight points despite widespread predictions of defeat, even as Joe Biden carried the state by nine points. With ticket-splitting declining and a midterm election under a Republican presidency, Collins is widely regarded as the most vulnerable incumbent Republican senator this cycle. Notably, Collins enters the race with her lowest personal approval ratings of her career.

Maine, a largely rural New England state with a moderate and independent-leaning electorate, has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1992. In 2024, Kamala Harris carried the state by 7 points—a slightly narrower margin than Biden’s 9-point win in 2020—marking one of the most muted partisan shifts in the nation. The state’s Class II Senate seat has been held by Republicans since 1979. On the Democratic side, Governor Janet Mills and Sullivan Harbor Master Graham Platner are the leading contenders; Mills is backed by national party leaders, while Platner showcased fundraising prowess and has drawn progressive support despite early controversy surrounding his campaign.

Race Note:

Incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins, first elected in 1996, is seeking a sixth term in 2026. Maine is the only Republican-held Senate seat up for election in 2026 in a state carried by Kamala Harris. Collins remains the lone Republican representing a New England state at the federal level and has consistently outperformed other GOP candidates in Maine. In 2020, she won re-election by about eight points despite widespread predictions of defeat, even as Joe Biden carried the state by nine points. With ticket-splitting declining and a midterm election under a Republican presidency, Collins is widely regarded as the most vulnerable incumbent Republican senator this cycle. Notably, Collins enters the race with her lowest personal approval ratings of her career.

Maine, a largely rural New England state with a moderate and independent-leaning electorate, has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1992. In 2024, Kamala Harris carried the state by 7 points—a slightly narrower margin than Biden’s 9-point win in 2020—marking one of the most muted partisan shifts in the nation. The state’s Class II Senate seat has been held by Republicans since 1979. On the Democratic side, Governor Janet Mills and Sullivan Harbor Master Graham Platner are the leading contenders; Mills is backed by national party leaders, while Platner showcased fundraising prowess and has drawn progressive support despite early controversy surrounding his campaign.

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Maine
US Senate Forecast
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EPO forecasts ___________ is favored to win by __%
Candidate
Projection
D
Graham Platner
__
__
R
Susan Collins Incumbent
__
__
Estimated Vote __
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County Prediction Population % of State
County 1 D+14.0 664,744 12.89%
County 2 R+4.5 423,355 8.21%
County 3 D+13.9 412,339 7.99%
County 4 D+55.1 261,608 5.07%
County 5 R+17.6 241,212 4.68%
County 6 R+60.0 235,969 4.58%
County 7 D+34.6 225,894 4.38%
County 8 R+25.7 187,847 3.64%
County 9 R+49.5 126,084 2.44%
County 10 D+39.8 118,942 2.31%
Unlock the 2026 Maine Forecast for $1
for access to state-by-state predictions, poll averages, county maps, demographic data, and more.
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Maine Subscribe for rating
US Senate Forecast
EPO forecasts ___________ is favored to win by ___%
Candidate
Votes
Pct.
D
Graham Platner
___
___
R
Susan Collins Incumbent
___
___
Estimated Vote ___
Membership Required
Subscribe or upgrade your membership to "Deep Dive" or "Insider" for EPO's live polling average, prediction market tracker, expert forecasts, recent election results, trends, and demographics; plus my county map and predictions.
View Membership Levels
County Prediction Population % of State
County 1 D+14.0 664,744 12.89%
County 2 R+4.5 423,355 8.21%
County 3 D+13.9 412,339 7.99%
County 4 D+55.1 261,608 5.07%
County 5 R+17.6 241,212 4.68%
County 6 R+60.0 235,969 4.58%
County 7 D+34.6 225,894 4.38%
County 8 R+25.7 187,847 3.64%
County 9 R+49.5 126,084 2.44%
County 10 D+39.8 118,942 2.31%

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