2026 Illinois Senate Forecast

2026 Illinois Senate Forecast

Last Updated: Wednesday, April 1, 2026, 11:10 AM ET

Race Note:

Incumbent Democratic Sen. Dick Durbin, first elected in 1996, declined to seek a sixth term in 2026. This marks the first open Senate race in Illinois since 2010 and the first for this Class II seat since Durbin’s initial election. Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton won a contested Democratic primary, while Republican former state party chair Don Tracy secured the GOP nomination. Stratton is heavily favored in the general election given the state’s partisan lean.

In the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris carried Illinois by just under 11 points—six points lower than Biden’s 2020 margin—reflecting reduced Democratic turnout in Cook County but not altering the state’s solidly blue status. Democrats hold 14 of 17 U.S. House seats, control both chambers of the state legislature with large majorities, and occupy most major statewide executive offices.

Race Note:

Incumbent Democratic Sen. Dick Durbin, first elected in 1996, declined to seek a sixth term in 2026. This marks the first open Senate race in Illinois since 2010 and the first for this Class II seat since Durbin’s initial election. The Democratic primary has emerged as a three-way contest among Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton, Congresswoman Robin Kelly, and Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi, who has led in polling and fundraising. Governor JB Pritzker and his allies have backed Stratton, while Kelly has drawn support from the Congressional Black Caucus. Former Illinois Republican Party chair Don Tracy is the leading GOP contender, though the Democratic nominee will be heavily favored in the general election given the state’s partisan lean.

In the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris carried Illinois by just under 11 points—six points lower than Biden’s 2020 margin—reflecting reduced Democratic turnout in Cook County but not altering the state’s solidly blue status. Democrats hold 14 of 17 U.S. House seats, control both chambers of the state legislature with large majorities, and occupy most major statewide executive offices. 

See More
Unlock the Forecast for $1
for access to state-by-state predictions, poll averages, county maps, demographic data, and more.
Subscribe Now
Illinois
US Senate Forecast
Subscribe for rating
EPO forecasts ___________ is favored to win by __%
Candidate
Projection
D
Juliana Stratton
__
__
R
Don Tracy
__
__
Estimated Vote __
Membership Required
Subscribe or upgrade your membership to "Deep Dive" or "Insider" for EPO's live polling average, prediction market tracker, expert forecasts, recent election results, trends, and demographics; plus my county map and predictions.
View Membership Levels
County Prediction Population % of State
County 1 D+14.0 664,744 12.89%
County 2 R+4.5 423,355 8.21%
County 3 D+13.9 412,339 7.99%
County 4 D+55.1 261,608 5.07%
County 5 R+17.6 241,212 4.68%
County 6 R+60.0 235,969 4.58%
County 7 D+34.6 225,894 4.38%
County 8 R+25.7 187,847 3.64%
County 9 R+49.5 126,084 2.44%
County 10 D+39.8 118,942 2.31%
Unlock the 2026 Illinois Forecast for $1
for access to state-by-state predictions, poll averages, county maps, demographic data, and more.
Subscribe Now
Illinois Subscribe for rating
US Senate Forecast
EPO forecasts ___________ is favored to win by ___%
Candidate
Votes
Pct.
D
Juliana Stratton
___
___
R Don Tracy
___
___
Estimated Vote ___
Membership Required
Subscribe or upgrade your membership to "Deep Dive" or "Insider" for EPO's live polling average, prediction market tracker, expert forecasts, recent election results, trends, and demographics; plus my county map and predictions.
View Membership Levels
County Prediction Population % of State
County 1 D+14.0 664,744 12.89%
County 2 R+4.5 423,355 8.21%
County 3 D+13.9 412,339 7.99%
County 4 D+55.1 261,608 5.07%
County 5 R+17.6 241,212 4.68%
County 6 R+60.0 235,969 4.58%
County 7 D+34.6 225,894 4.38%
County 8 R+25.7 187,847 3.64%
County 9 R+49.5 126,084 2.44%
County 10 D+39.8 118,942 2.31%

Leave a Reply