2026 Florida Senate Forecast

2026 Florida Senate Forecast

Last Updated: Wednesday, April 1, 2026, 11:10 AM ET

Race Note:

The 2026 United States Senate special election in Florida will fill the remaining two years of former Republican Sen. Marco Rubio’s term following his resignation to become U.S. Secretary of State under President Donald Trump’s second administration. Governor Ron DeSantis appointed Attorney General Ashley Moody to the seat, and she is running in the special election to complete the term. Democrats are expected to nominate Alexander Vindman, a former National Security Council official who rose to prominence as the key whistleblower in President Trump’s first impeachment.

Once the nation’s most prominent swing state, Florida has shifted decisively toward the GOP in recent years. In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris by 13 points—the largest margin in Florida since 1988—and carried all three of the state’s majority-Hispanic counties, including flipping Miami-Dade. The state’s sharp rightward movement, driven largely by growing Republican strength among Latino voters, has left Democrats uncompetitive in statewide contests, and the 2026 race is not expected to be closely contested.

Race Note:

The 2026 United States Senate special election in Florida will fill the remaining two years of former Republican Sen. Marco Rubio’s term following his resignation to become U.S. Secretary of State under President Donald Trump’s second administration. Governor Ron DeSantis appointed Attorney General Ashley Moody to the seat, and she is running in the special election to complete the term. Once the nation’s most prominent swing state, Florida has shifted decisively toward the GOP in recent years.

In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris by 13 points—the largest margin in Florida since 1988—and carried all three of the state’s majority-Hispanic counties, including flipping Miami-Dade. The state’s sharp rightward movement, driven largely by growing Republican strength among Latino voters, has left Democrats uncompetitive in statewide contests, and the 2026 race is not expected to be closely contested.

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Florida
US Senate Forecast
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EPO forecasts ___________ is favored to win by __%
Candidate
Projection
R
Ashley Moody Incumbent
__
__
D
Alexander Vindman
__
__
Estimated Vote __
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County Prediction Population % of State
County 1 D+14.0 664,744 12.89%
County 2 R+4.5 423,355 8.21%
County 3 D+13.9 412,339 7.99%
County 4 D+55.1 261,608 5.07%
County 5 R+17.6 241,212 4.68%
County 6 R+60.0 235,969 4.58%
County 7 D+34.6 225,894 4.38%
County 8 R+25.7 187,847 3.64%
County 9 R+49.5 126,084 2.44%
County 10 D+39.8 118,942 2.31%
Unlock the 2026 Florida Forecast for $1
for access to state-by-state predictions, poll averages, county maps, demographic data, and more.
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Florida Subscribe for rating
US Senate Forecast
EPO forecasts ___________ is favored to win by ___%
Candidate
Votes
Pct.
R
Ashley Moody Incumbent
___
___
D
Alexander Vindman
___
___
Estimated Vote ___
Membership Required
Subscribe or upgrade your membership to "Deep Dive" or "Insider" for EPO's live polling average, prediction market tracker, expert forecasts, recent election results, trends, and demographics; plus my county map and predictions.
View Membership Levels
County Prediction Population % of State
County 1 D+14.0 664,744 12.89%
County 2 R+4.5 423,355 8.21%
County 3 D+13.9 412,339 7.99%
County 4 D+55.1 261,608 5.07%
County 5 R+17.6 241,212 4.68%
County 6 R+60.0 235,969 4.58%
County 7 D+34.6 225,894 4.38%
County 8 R+25.7 187,847 3.64%
County 9 R+49.5 126,084 2.44%
County 10 D+39.8 118,942 2.31%

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