2026 Arkansas Senate Forecast
2026 Arkansas Senate Forecast
Last Updated: Wednesday, April 1, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Race Note:
Incumbent Republican Sen. Tom Cotton, first elected in 2014, is seeking a third term in 2026 and enters the race as the overwhelming favorite in solidly Republican Arkansas. Democrats have struggled to mount competitive statewide campaigns in recent years, and no Democrat has surpassed 40% of the vote in a presidential or Senate race since 2008. Arkansas has trended steadily rightward for two decades, with Donald Trump carrying the state by 31 points in the 2024 presidential election—the party’s strongest showing since 1972 and their eighth consecutive margin increase. Republicans hold every statewide office, both U.S. Senate seats, and all but one U.S. House seat
Race Note:
Incumbent Republican Sen. Tom Cotton, first elected in 2014, is seeking a third term in 2026 and enters the race as the overwhelming favorite in solidly
Republican Arkansas. Democrats have struggled to mount competitive statewide campaigns in recent years, and no Democrat has surpassed 40% of the vote in a presidential or Senate race since 2004.
Arkansas has trended steadily rightward for two decades, with Donald Trump carrying the state by 31 points in the 2024 presidential election—his strongest showing yet and the party’s eighth consecutive margin increase. Republicans hold every statewide office, both U.S. Senate seats, and all but one U.S. House seat
| County | Prediction | Population | % of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| County 1 | D+14.0 | 664,744 | 12.89% |
| County 2 | R+4.5 | 423,355 | 8.21% |
| County 3 | D+13.9 | 412,339 | 7.99% |
| County 4 | D+55.1 | 261,608 | 5.07% |
| County 5 | R+17.6 | 241,212 | 4.68% |
| County 6 | R+60.0 | 235,969 | 4.58% |
| County 7 | D+34.6 | 225,894 | 4.38% |
| County 8 | R+25.7 | 187,847 | 3.64% |
| County 9 | R+49.5 | 126,084 | 2.44% |
| County 10 | D+39.8 | 118,942 | 2.31% |