Subscribe

Back to National

2026 Tennessee Senate Forecast

2026 Tennessee Senate Forecast

Last Updated: Wednesday, April 1, 2026, 11:10 AM ET

Race Note:

Incumbent Republican Sen. Bill Hagerty, first elected in 2020 with 62% of the vote, is seeking a second term in 2026. Tennessee, a Southern state entirely within the Bible Belt, has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Bill Clinton and Al Gore carried it in 1996. The state has not been competitive at the presidential level since 2000, when Gore narrowly lost his home state by fewer than 4 points. In 2024, Donald Trump won Tennessee by 30 points, his largest margin in the state to date and an increase from his 23-point victory in 2020. Republicans currently hold both U.S. Senate seats, all statewide offices, and seven of eight U.S. House seats.

Race Note:

Incumbent Republican Sen. Bill Hagerty, first elected in 2020 with 62% of the vote, is seeking a second term in 2026. Tennessee, a Southern state entirely within the Bible Belt, has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Bill Clinton and Al Gore carried it in 1996.

The state has not been competitive at the presidential level since 2000, when Gore narrowly lost his home state by fewer than 4 points. In 2024, Donald Trump won Tennessee by 30 points, his largest margin in the state to date and an increase from his 23-point victory in 2020. Republicans currently hold both U.S. Senate seats, all statewide offices, and seven of eight U.S. House seats.

See More
Unlock the Forecast for $1
for access to state-by-state predictions, poll averages, county maps, demographic data, and more.
Subscribe Now
Tennessee
US Senate Forecast
Subscribe for rating
EPO forecasts ___________ is favored to win by __%
Candidate
Projection
R
Bill Hagerty Incumbent
__
__
D
Democratic nominee
__
__
Estimated Vote __
Membership Required
Subscribe or upgrade your membership to "Deep Dive" or "Insider" for EPO's live polling average, prediction market tracker, expert forecasts, recent election results, trends, and demographics; plus my county map and predictions.
View Membership Levels
County Prediction Population % of State
County 1 D+14.0 664,744 12.89%
County 2 R+4.5 423,355 8.21%
County 3 D+13.9 412,339 7.99%
County 4 D+55.1 261,608 5.07%
County 5 R+17.6 241,212 4.68%
County 6 R+60.0 235,969 4.58%
County 7 D+34.6 225,894 4.38%
County 8 R+25.7 187,847 3.64%
County 9 R+49.5 126,084 2.44%
County 10 D+39.8 118,942 2.31%
Unlock the 2026 Tennessee Forecast for $1
for access to state-by-state predictions, poll averages, county maps, demographic data, and more.
Subscribe Now
Tennessee Subscribe for rating
US Senate Forecast
EPO forecasts ___________ is favored to win by ___%
Candidate
Votes
Pct.
R
Bill Hagerty Incumbent
___
___
D
Democratic nominee
___
___
Estimated Vote ___
Membership Required
Subscribe or upgrade your membership to "Deep Dive" or "Insider" for EPO's live polling average, prediction market tracker, expert forecasts, recent election results, trends, and demographics; plus my county map and predictions.
View Membership Levels
County Prediction Population % of State
County 1 D+14.0 664,744 12.89%
County 2 R+4.5 423,355 8.21%
County 3 D+13.9 412,339 7.99%
County 4 D+55.1 261,608 5.07%
County 5 R+17.6 241,212 4.68%
County 6 R+60.0 235,969 4.58%
County 7 D+34.6 225,894 4.38%
County 8 R+25.7 187,847 3.64%
County 9 R+49.5 126,084 2.44%
County 10 D+39.8 118,942 2.31%

Leave a Reply