2026 Florida Senate Forecast

2026 Florida Senate Forecast

Last Updated: Friday, February 6, 2025, 11:08 AM ET

Race Note:

The 2026 United States Senate special election in Florida will fill the remaining two years of former Republican Sen. Marco Rubio’s term following his resignation to become U.S. Secretary of State under President Donald Trump’s second administration. Governor Ron DeSantis appointed Attorney General Ashley Moody to the seat, and she is running in the special election to complete the term.

Once the nation’s most prominent swing state, Florida has shifted decisively toward the GOP in recent years. In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris by 13 points—the largest margin in Florida since 1988—and carried all three of the state’s majority-Hispanic counties, including flipping Miami-Dade. The state’s sharp rightward movement, driven largely by growing Republican strength among Latino voters, has left Democrats uncompetitive in statewide contests, and the 2026 race is not expected to be closely contested.

Race Note:

The 2026 United States Senate special election in Florida will fill the remaining two years of former Republican Sen. Marco Rubio’s term following his resignation to become U.S. Secretary of State under President Donald Trump’s second administration. Governor Ron DeSantis appointed Attorney General Ashley Moody to the seat, and she is running in the special election to complete the term. Once the nation’s most prominent swing state, Florida has shifted decisively toward the GOP in recent years.

In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris by 13 points—the largest margin in Florida since 1988—and carried all three of the state’s majority-Hispanic counties, including flipping Miami-Dade. The state’s sharp rightward movement, driven largely by growing Republican strength among Latino voters, has left Democrats uncompetitive in statewide contests, and the 2026 race is not expected to be closely contested.

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Florida
US Senate Forecast
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Candidate
Projection
R
Ashley Moody Incumbent
0.0%
0
D
Alexander Vindman
0.0%
0
Estimated Vote 0
Membership Required
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County Prediction Population % of State
County 1 D+14.0 664,744 12.89%
County 2 R+4.5 423,355 8.21%
County 3 D+13.9 412,339 7.99%
County 4 D+55.1 261,608 5.07%
County 5 R+17.6 241,212 4.68%
County 6 R+60.0 235,969 4.58%
County 7 D+34.6 225,894 4.38%
County 8 R+25.7 187,847 3.64%
County 9 R+49.5 126,084 2.44%
County 10 D+39.8 118,942 2.31%
Florida Loading rating…
US Senate Forecast
Loading projection…
Candidate
Votes
Pct.
R Ashley Moody Incumbent
0
0.0%
D Alexander Vindman
0
0.0%
Estimated Vote 0
Membership Required
Subscribe or upgrade your membership to "Presidential" or "Executive" for EPO's live polling average, prediction market tracker, expert forecasts, recent election results, trends, and demographics; plus my county map and predictions.
View Membership Levels
County Prediction Population % of State
County 1 D+14.0 664,744 12.89%
County 2 R+4.5 423,355 8.21%
County 3 D+13.9 412,339 7.99%
County 4 D+55.1 261,608 5.07%
County 5 R+17.6 241,212 4.68%
County 6 R+60.0 235,969 4.58%
County 7 D+34.6 225,894 4.38%
County 8 R+25.7 187,847 3.64%
County 9 R+49.5 126,084 2.44%
County 10 D+39.8 118,942 2.31%

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