2026 Georgia Senate Forecast
2026 Georgia Senate Forecast
Last Updated: Friday, February 6, 2025, 11:08 AM ET
Race Note:
Incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, first elected in the 2021 runoff by just over one point against Republican David Perdue, is seeking a second term in 2026. Georgia, located in the Deep South and Bible Belt, has transformed from a reliably Republican state into a top national battleground over the past decade. This shift has been driven by rapid growth and diversification in the Atlanta metropolitan area, which has increasingly offset the GOP’s dominance in rural and exurban regions. Republicans currently hold all statewide executive offices, both chambers of the legislature, and a majority of the state’s U.S. House delegation, while Democrats hold both U.S. Senate seats.
In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump carried Georgia by just over 2 points, reclaiming the state after Joe Biden’s narrow 2020 victory. Despite the flip, Georgia came closer to voting to the left of the national average than at any time since 1980, as the national vote shifted more sharply toward Republicans than Georgia itself did. Kamala Harris made additional gains in the southern Atlanta suburbs, even as Republicans recovered in rural areas. This divide between a diversifying urban core and conservative rurals ensures Georgia will remain one of the most competitive battlegrounds heading into 2026.
Race Note:
Incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, first elected in the 2021 runoff by just over one point against Republican David Perdue, is seeking a second
term in 2026. Georgia, located in the Deep South and Bible Belt, has transformed from a reliably Republican state into a top national battleground over the past decade. This shift has been driven by rapid growth and diversification in the Atlanta metropolitan area, which has increasingly offset the GOP’s dominance in rural and exurban regions. Republicans currently hold all statewide executive offices, both chambers of the legislature, and a majority of the state’s U.S. House delegation, while Democrats hold both U.S. Senate seats.
In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump carried Georgia by just over 2 points, reclaiming the state after Joe Biden’s narrow 2020 victory. Despite the flip, Georgia came closer to voting to the left of the national average than at any time since 1980, as the national vote shifted more sharply toward Republicans than Georgia itself did. Kamala Harris made additional gains in the southern Atlanta suburbs, even as Republicans recovered in rural areas. This divide between a diversifying urban core and conservative rurals ensures Georgia will remain one of the most competitive battlegrounds heading into 2026.
| County | Prediction | Population | % of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| County 1 | D+14.0 | 664,744 | 12.89% |
| County 2 | R+4.5 | 423,355 | 8.21% |
| County 3 | D+13.9 | 412,339 | 7.99% |
| County 4 | D+55.1 | 261,608 | 5.07% |
| County 5 | R+17.6 | 241,212 | 4.68% |
| County 6 | R+60.0 | 235,969 | 4.58% |
| County 7 | D+34.6 | 225,894 | 4.38% |
| County 8 | R+25.7 | 187,847 | 3.64% |
| County 9 | R+49.5 | 126,084 | 2.44% |
| County 10 | D+39.8 | 118,942 | 2.31% |
| County | Prediction | Population | % of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| County 1 | D+14.0 | 664,744 | 12.89% |
| County 2 | R+4.5 | 423,355 | 8.21% |
| County 3 | D+13.9 | 412,339 | 7.99% |
| County 4 | D+55.1 | 261,608 | 5.07% |
| County 5 | R+17.6 | 241,212 | 4.68% |
| County 6 | R+60.0 | 235,969 | 4.58% |
| County 7 | D+34.6 | 225,894 | 4.38% |
| County 8 | R+25.7 | 187,847 | 3.64% |
| County 9 | R+49.5 | 126,084 | 2.44% |
| County 10 | D+39.8 | 118,942 | 2.31% |