2026 Kansas Senate Forecast
2026 Kansas Senate Forecast
Last Updated: Friday, February 6, 2025, 11:08 AM ET
Race Note:
Incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall, first elected in 2020, is seeking a second term in 2026 after defeating Democrat Barbara Bollier by 11 points in a race that was expected to be much closer. Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1932, and Republicans currently hold three of the state’s four U.S. House seats, most statewide offices, and large legislative majorities. Donald Trump carried Kansas by 16 points in the 2024 presidential election—a 1.5-point improvement over 2020—marking one of his most modest gains nationwide. This was largely driven by the state’s growing share of college-educated voters, which is the highest among states Trump carried in 2024. Despite this gradual shift, Kansas remains a Republican stronghold at the federal level, with Marshall strongly favored to win re-election.
Race Note:
Incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall, first elected in 2020, is seeking a second term in 2026 after feating Democrat Barbara Bollier by
11 points in a race that was expected to be much closer. Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1932, and Republicans currently hold three of the state’s four U.S. House seats, most statewide offices, and large legislative majorities.
Donald Trump carried Kansas by 16 points in the 2024 presidential election—a 1.5-point improvement over 2020—marking one of his most modest gains nationwide. This was largely driven by the state’s growing share of college-educated voters, which is the highest among states Trump carried in 2024. Despite this gradual shift, Kansas remains a Republican stronghold at the federal level, with Marshall strongly favored to win re-election.
| County | Prediction | Population | % of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| County 1 | D+14.0 | 664,744 | 12.89% |
| County 2 | R+4.5 | 423,355 | 8.21% |
| County 3 | D+13.9 | 412,339 | 7.99% |
| County 4 | D+55.1 | 261,608 | 5.07% |
| County 5 | R+17.6 | 241,212 | 4.68% |
| County 6 | R+60.0 | 235,969 | 4.58% |
| County 7 | D+34.6 | 225,894 | 4.38% |
| County 8 | R+25.7 | 187,847 | 3.64% |
| County 9 | R+49.5 | 126,084 | 2.44% |
| County 10 | D+39.8 | 118,942 | 2.31% |
| County | Prediction | Population | % of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| County 1 | D+14.0 | 664,744 | 12.89% |
| County 2 | R+4.5 | 423,355 | 8.21% |
| County 3 | D+13.9 | 412,339 | 7.99% |
| County 4 | D+55.1 | 261,608 | 5.07% |
| County 5 | R+17.6 | 241,212 | 4.68% |
| County 6 | R+60.0 | 235,969 | 4.58% |
| County 7 | D+34.6 | 225,894 | 4.38% |
| County 8 | R+25.7 | 187,847 | 3.64% |
| County 9 | R+49.5 | 126,084 | 2.44% |
| County 10 | D+39.8 | 118,942 | 2.31% |