2026 Louisiana Senate Forecast

2026 Louisiana Senate Forecast

Last Updated: Friday, February 6, 2025, 11:08 AM ET

Race Note:

Incumbent Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy, first elected in 2014, is seeking a third term in 2026, but not without facing a primary challenge. Cassidy has drawn significant attention within the Republican Party for his vocal criticism of former President Donald Trump. He voted to convict Trump during his second impeachment trial, a decision that led the Republican Party of Louisiana to formally censure him. State Treasurer John Fleming and State Senator Blake Miguez have entered the primary against Cassidy, while Congresswoman Julia Letlow has expressed interest in joining the race. Former Democratic Governor John Bel Edwards declined to run, leaving Democrats without a major candidate and positioning the eventual Republican nominee as the clear favorite.

Louisiana’s election system is unique in that a runoff will be held on December 12 if no candidate secures a majority in the November vote. In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump carried Louisiana by 22 points, extending the state’s streak of double-digit Republican victories in every presidential contest since 2004.

Race Note:

Incumbent Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy, first elected in 2014, is seeking a third term in 2026, but not without facing a primary challenge. Cassidy has drawn significant attention within the Republican Party for his vocal criticism of former President Donald Trump. He voted to convict Trump during his second impeachment trial, a decision that led the Republican Party of Louisiana to formally censure him. State Treasurer John Fleming and State Senator Blake Miguez have entered the primary against Cassidy, while Congresswoman Julia Letlow has expressed interest in joining the race. Former Democratic Governor John Bel Edwards declined to run, leaving Democrats without a major candidate and positioning the eventual Republican nominee as the clear favorite.

Louisiana’s election system is unique in that a runoff will be held on December 12 if no candidate secures a majority in the November vote. In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump carried Louisiana by 22 points, extending the state’s streak of double-digit Republican victories in every presidential contest since 2004.

See More
Lousiana
US Senate Forecast
Loading rating…
Loading projection…
Candidate
Projection
R
Bill Cassidy Incumbent
0.0%
0
D
Democratic nominee
0.0%
0
Estimated Vote 0
Membership Required
Subscribe or upgrade your membership to "Presidential" or "Executive" for EPO's live polling average, prediction market tracker, expert forecasts, recent election results, trends, and demographics; plus my county map and predictions.
View Membership Levels
County Prediction Population % of State
County 1 D+14.0 664,744 12.89%
County 2 R+4.5 423,355 8.21%
County 3 D+13.9 412,339 7.99%
County 4 D+55.1 261,608 5.07%
County 5 R+17.6 241,212 4.68%
County 6 R+60.0 235,969 4.58%
County 7 D+34.6 225,894 4.38%
County 8 R+25.7 187,847 3.64%
County 9 R+49.5 126,084 2.44%
County 10 D+39.8 118,942 2.31%
Louisiana Loading rating…
US Senate Forecast
Loading projection…
Candidate
Votes
Pct.
R Bill Cassidy Incumbent
0
0.0%
D Democratic nominee
0
0.0%
Estimated Vote 0
Membership Required
Subscribe or upgrade your membership to "Presidential" or "Executive" for EPO's live polling average, prediction market tracker, expert forecasts, recent election results, trends, and demographics; plus my county map and predictions.
View Membership Levels
County Prediction Population % of State
County 1 D+14.0 664,744 12.89%
County 2 R+4.5 423,355 8.21%
County 3 D+13.9 412,339 7.99%
County 4 D+55.1 261,608 5.07%
County 5 R+17.6 241,212 4.68%
County 6 R+60.0 235,969 4.58%
County 7 D+34.6 225,894 4.38%
County 8 R+25.7 187,847 3.64%
County 9 R+49.5 126,084 2.44%
County 10 D+39.8 118,942 2.31%

Leave a Reply