2026 Massachusetts Senate Forecast

2026 Massachusetts Senate Forecast

Last Updated: Friday, February 6, 2025, 11:08 AM ET

Race Note:

Incumbent Democratic Sen. Ed Markey, first elected in 2013 and re-elected in 2020 with 66% of the vote, is seeking a third full term in 2026. Markey, who will be 80 at the time of the election, faces a primary challenge from Congressman Seth Moulton, while Congresswoman Ayanna Pressley and Boston Mayor Michelle Wu are also considering bids.

Massachusetts has been a Democratic stronghold since 1960 and has ranked among the top three most Democratic states in each of the last three presidential elections. In 2024, Kamala Harris carried Massachusetts by 25 points, winning every county but posting an 8-point decline from Joe Biden’s 2020 margin, part of a broader rightward shift across several blue states. Despite this, Massachusetts remains one of the most reliably Democratic states in the country, and the eventual Democratic nominee will be overwhelmingly favored in the general election.

Race Note:

Massachusetts has been a Democratic stronghold since 1960 and has ranked among the top three most Democratic states in each of the last three presidential elections. In 2024, Kamala Harris carried Massachusetts by 25 points, winning every county but posting an 8-point decline from Joe Biden’s 2020 margin, part of a broader rightward shift across several blue states. Despite this, Massachusetts remains one of the most reliably Democratic states in the country, and the eventual Democratic nominee will be overwhelmingly favored in the general election.

Incumbent Democratic Sen. Ed Markey, first elected in 2013 and re-elected in 2020 with 66% of the vote, is seeking a third full term in 2026. Markey, who will be 80 at the time of the election, faces a primary challenge from Congressman Seth Moulton, while Congresswoman Ayanna Pressley and Boston Mayor Michelle Wu are also considering bids.

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Massachusetts
US Senate Forecast
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Candidate
Projection
D
Ed Markey Incumbent
0.0%
0
R
John Deaton
0.0%
0
Estimated Vote 0
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County Prediction Population % of State
County 1 D+14.0 664,744 12.89%
County 2 R+4.5 423,355 8.21%
County 3 D+13.9 412,339 7.99%
County 4 D+55.1 261,608 5.07%
County 5 R+17.6 241,212 4.68%
County 6 R+60.0 235,969 4.58%
County 7 D+34.6 225,894 4.38%
County 8 R+25.7 187,847 3.64%
County 9 R+49.5 126,084 2.44%
County 10 D+39.8 118,942 2.31%
Massachusetts Loading rating…
US Senate Forecast
Loading projection…
Candidate
Votes
Pct.
D Ed Markey Incumbent
0
0.0%
R John Deaton
0
0.0%
Estimated Vote 0
Membership Required
Subscribe or upgrade your membership to "Presidential" or "Executive" for EPO's live polling average, prediction market tracker, expert forecasts, recent election results, trends, and demographics; plus my county map and predictions.
View Membership Levels
County Prediction Population % of State
County 1 D+14.0 664,744 12.89%
County 2 R+4.5 423,355 8.21%
County 3 D+13.9 412,339 7.99%
County 4 D+55.1 261,608 5.07%
County 5 R+17.6 241,212 4.68%
County 6 R+60.0 235,969 4.58%
County 7 D+34.6 225,894 4.38%
County 8 R+25.7 187,847 3.64%
County 9 R+49.5 126,084 2.44%
County 10 D+39.8 118,942 2.31%

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