2026 Massachusetts Senate Forecast
2026 Massachusetts Senate Forecast
Last Updated: Friday, February 6, 2025, 11:08 AM ET
Race Note:
Incumbent Democratic Sen. Ed Markey, first elected in 2013 and re-elected in 2020 with 66% of the vote, is seeking a third full term in 2026. Markey, who will be 80 at the time of the election, faces a primary challenge from Congressman Seth Moulton, while Congresswoman Ayanna Pressley and Boston Mayor Michelle Wu are also considering bids.
Massachusetts has been a Democratic stronghold since 1960 and has ranked among the top three most Democratic states in each of the last three presidential elections. In 2024, Kamala Harris carried Massachusetts by 25 points, winning every county but posting an 8-point decline from Joe Biden’s 2020 margin, part of a broader rightward shift across several blue states. Despite this, Massachusetts remains one of the most reliably Democratic states in the country, and the eventual Democratic nominee will be overwhelmingly favored in the general election.
Race Note:
Massachusetts has been a Democratic stronghold since 1960 and has ranked among the top three most Democratic states in each of the last three
presidential elections. In 2024, Kamala Harris carried Massachusetts by 25 points, winning every county but posting an 8-point decline from Joe Biden’s 2020 margin, part of a broader rightward shift across several blue states. Despite this, Massachusetts remains one of the most reliably Democratic states in the country, and the eventual Democratic nominee will be overwhelmingly favored in the general election.
Incumbent Democratic Sen. Ed Markey, first elected in 2013 and re-elected in 2020 with 66% of the vote, is seeking a third full term in 2026. Markey, who will be 80 at the time of the election, faces a primary challenge from Congressman Seth Moulton, while Congresswoman Ayanna Pressley and Boston Mayor Michelle Wu are also considering bids.
| County | Prediction | Population | % of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| County 1 | D+14.0 | 664,744 | 12.89% |
| County 2 | R+4.5 | 423,355 | 8.21% |
| County 3 | D+13.9 | 412,339 | 7.99% |
| County 4 | D+55.1 | 261,608 | 5.07% |
| County 5 | R+17.6 | 241,212 | 4.68% |
| County 6 | R+60.0 | 235,969 | 4.58% |
| County 7 | D+34.6 | 225,894 | 4.38% |
| County 8 | R+25.7 | 187,847 | 3.64% |
| County 9 | R+49.5 | 126,084 | 2.44% |
| County 10 | D+39.8 | 118,942 | 2.31% |
| County | Prediction | Population | % of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| County 1 | D+14.0 | 664,744 | 12.89% |
| County 2 | R+4.5 | 423,355 | 8.21% |
| County 3 | D+13.9 | 412,339 | 7.99% |
| County 4 | D+55.1 | 261,608 | 5.07% |
| County 5 | R+17.6 | 241,212 | 4.68% |
| County 6 | R+60.0 | 235,969 | 4.58% |
| County 7 | D+34.6 | 225,894 | 4.38% |
| County 8 | R+25.7 | 187,847 | 3.64% |
| County 9 | R+49.5 | 126,084 | 2.44% |
| County 10 | D+39.8 | 118,942 | 2.31% |