2026 Minnesota Senate Forecast

2026 Minnesota Senate Forecast

Last Updated: Friday, February 6, 2025, 11:08 AM ET

Race Note:

Incumbent Democratic Sen. Tina Smith, first appointed in 2018, is not seeking re-election in 2026, setting up the first open U.S. Senate contest in Minnesota in over a decade. The Democratic primary is being contested between Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan and Congresswoman Angie Craig, while former NBA player and 2024 GOP nominee Royce White and former Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze are leading the Republican field. Minnesota has not elected a Republican to statewide office since 2006.

Kamala Harris carried Minnesota by 4 points in the 2024 presidential election, marking the state’s thirteenth consecutive Democratic win—the longest active streak in the nation. Though Minnesota leans Democratic, no Democrat has won more than 55% of the presidential vote since 1964, and both parties continue to view it as a potential battleground. Democrats currently control all statewide offices, both U.S. Senate seats, and hold narrow majorities in the state legislature, while the U.S. House delegation is evenly split.

Race Note:

Incumbent Democratic Sen. Tina Smith, first appointed in 2018, is not seeking re-election in 2026, setting up the first open U.S. Senate contest in Minnesota in over a decade. The Democratic primary is being contested between Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan and Congresswoman Angie Craig, while former NBA player and 2024 GOP nominee Royce White and former Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze are leading the Republican field. Minnesota has not elected a Republican to statewide office since 2006.

Kamala Harris carried Minnesota by 4 points in the 2024 presidential election, marking the state’s thirteenth consecutive Democratic win—the longest active streak in the nation. Though Minnesota leans Democratic, no Democrat has won more than 55% of the presidential vote since 1964, and both parties continue to view it as a potential battleground. Democrats currently control all statewide offices, both U.S. Senate seats, and hold narrow majorities in the state legislature, while the U.S. House delegation is evenly split.

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Minnesota
US Senate Forecast
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Candidate
Projection
D
Peggy Flanagan
0.0%
0
R
Michele Tafoya
0.0%
0
Estimated Vote 0
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County Prediction Population % of State
County 1 D+14.0 664,744 12.89%
County 2 R+4.5 423,355 8.21%
County 3 D+13.9 412,339 7.99%
County 4 D+55.1 261,608 5.07%
County 5 R+17.6 241,212 4.68%
County 6 R+60.0 235,969 4.58%
County 7 D+34.6 225,894 4.38%
County 8 R+25.7 187,847 3.64%
County 9 R+49.5 126,084 2.44%
County 10 D+39.8 118,942 2.31%
Minnesota Loading rating…
US Senate Forecast
Loading projection…
Candidate
Votes
Pct.
D Peggy Flanagan
0
0.0%
R Michele Tafoya
0
0.0%
Estimated Vote 0
Membership Required
Subscribe or upgrade your membership to "Presidential" or "Executive" for EPO's live polling average, prediction market tracker, expert forecasts, recent election results, trends, and demographics; plus my county map and predictions.
View Membership Levels
County Prediction Population % of State
County 1 D+14.0 664,744 12.89%
County 2 R+4.5 423,355 8.21%
County 3 D+13.9 412,339 7.99%
County 4 D+55.1 261,608 5.07%
County 5 R+17.6 241,212 4.68%
County 6 R+60.0 235,969 4.58%
County 7 D+34.6 225,894 4.38%
County 8 R+25.7 187,847 3.64%
County 9 R+49.5 126,084 2.44%
County 10 D+39.8 118,942 2.31%

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