2026 Mississippi Senate Forecast
2026 Mississippi Senate Forecast
Last Updated: Friday, February 6, 2025, 11:08 AM ET
Race Note:
Incumbent Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, first appointed in 2018 and elected to a full term in 2020, is seeking a second full term in 2026. Mississippi has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1982 and remains one of the most reliably Republican states in the Deep South. In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump carried Mississippi by 23 points, marking the first time a candidate exceeded 60% of the statewide vote since Ronald Reagan in 1984. Although Mississippi votes slightly to the left of its neighboring states due to its large African American population, it remains firmly Republican at the federal level. The 2026 Senate race will follow state law requiring a runoff on December 1 if no candidate secures a majority on November 3.
Race Note:
Incumbent Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, first appointed in 2018 and elected to a full term in 2020, is seeking a second term in 2026. Mississippi has
not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1982 and remains one of the most reliably Republican states in the Deep South.
In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump carried Mississippi by 23 points, marking the first time a candidate exceeded 60% of the statewide vote since Ronald Reagan in 1984. Although Mississippi votes slightly to the left of its neighboring states due to its large African American population, it remains firmly Republican at the federal level. The 2026 Senate race will follow state law requiring a runoff on December 1 if no candidate secures a majority on November 3.
| County | Prediction | Population | % of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| County 1 | D+14.0 | 664,744 | 12.89% |
| County 2 | R+4.5 | 423,355 | 8.21% |
| County 3 | D+13.9 | 412,339 | 7.99% |
| County 4 | D+55.1 | 261,608 | 5.07% |
| County 5 | R+17.6 | 241,212 | 4.68% |
| County 6 | R+60.0 | 235,969 | 4.58% |
| County 7 | D+34.6 | 225,894 | 4.38% |
| County 8 | R+25.7 | 187,847 | 3.64% |
| County 9 | R+49.5 | 126,084 | 2.44% |
| County 10 | D+39.8 | 118,942 | 2.31% |
| County | Prediction | Population | % of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| County 1 | D+14.0 | 664,744 | 12.89% |
| County 2 | R+4.5 | 423,355 | 8.21% |
| County 3 | D+13.9 | 412,339 | 7.99% |
| County 4 | D+55.1 | 261,608 | 5.07% |
| County 5 | R+17.6 | 241,212 | 4.68% |
| County 6 | R+60.0 | 235,969 | 4.58% |
| County 7 | D+34.6 | 225,894 | 4.38% |
| County 8 | R+25.7 | 187,847 | 3.64% |
| County 9 | R+49.5 | 126,084 | 2.44% |
| County 10 | D+39.8 | 118,942 | 2.31% |