2026 Montana Senate Forecast
2026 Montana Senate Forecast
Last Updated: Friday, March 27, 2025, 1:40 PM ET
Race Note:
Incumbent Republican Sen. Steve Daines, first elected in 2014, is seeking a third term in 2026 after winning re-election with 55% of the vote in 2020. Montana, a sparsely populated state in the Northern Rockies and Great Plains, has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Bill Clinton in 1992 and has been carried by Republicans by double digits in every presidential election since 2000 except 2008.
In 2024, Donald Trump won the state by just under 20%, maintaining its status as a reliably Republican stronghold. Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, long considered one of the few Democrats able to win statewide in Montana, was defeated in his 2024 re-election bid by over seven points. Republicans now control both U.S. Senate seats and hold majorities in the state legislature and congressional delegation.
Race Note:
Incumbent Republican Sen. Steve Daines, first elected in 2014, is seeking a third term after winning re-election with 55% of the vote in 2020. Montana, a
sparsely populated state in the Northern Rockies and Great Plains, has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Bill Clinton in 1992 and has been carried by Republicans by double digits in every presidential election since 2000 except 2008.
In 2024, Donald Trump won the state by just under 20%, maintaining its status as a reliably Republican stronghold. Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, long considered one of the few Democrats able to win statewide in Montana, was defeated in his 2024 re-election bid by over seven points. Republicans now control both U.S. Senate seats and hold majorities in the state legislature and congressional delegation.
| County | Prediction | Population | % of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| County 1 | D+14.0 | 664,744 | 12.89% |
| County 2 | R+4.5 | 423,355 | 8.21% |
| County 3 | D+13.9 | 412,339 | 7.99% |
| County 4 | D+55.1 | 261,608 | 5.07% |
| County 5 | R+17.6 | 241,212 | 4.68% |
| County 6 | R+60.0 | 235,969 | 4.58% |
| County 7 | D+34.6 | 225,894 | 4.38% |
| County 8 | R+25.7 | 187,847 | 3.64% |
| County 9 | R+49.5 | 126,084 | 2.44% |
| County 10 | D+39.8 | 118,942 | 2.31% |
| County | Prediction | Population | % of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| County 1 | D+14.0 | 664,744 | 12.89% |
| County 2 | R+4.5 | 423,355 | 8.21% |
| County 3 | D+13.9 | 412,339 | 7.99% |
| County 4 | D+55.1 | 261,608 | 5.07% |
| County 5 | R+17.6 | 241,212 | 4.68% |
| County 6 | R+60.0 | 235,969 | 4.58% |
| County 7 | D+34.6 | 225,894 | 4.38% |
| County 8 | R+25.7 | 187,847 | 3.64% |
| County 9 | R+49.5 | 126,084 | 2.44% |
| County 10 | D+39.8 | 118,942 | 2.31% |