2026 Nebraska Senate Forecast

2026 Nebraska Senate Forecast

Last Updated: Wednesday, April 1, 2026, 11:10 AM ET

Race Note:

Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts, appointed in 2023 following Ben Sasse’s resignation, and elected in 2024 to complete the remainder of the term, is seeking a full term in 2026. Democrats have indicated they will not field a candidate, while independent Dan Osborn, who ran in the 2024 Senate race, has announced his candidacy. Osborn’s performance in 2024 was the strongest for an independent in a Nebraska Senate contest and the best showing for a challenger in a Republican-held seat that cycle.

Nebraska, a sparsely populated Great Plains state, has not elected a Democrat statewide since 2006 and has voted Republican in nearly every presidential election since 1867. Donald Trump carried the state by 21 points in 2024, one of his smallest gains nationwide, as Nebraska—like its northern neighbor Kansas—has shifted over 10 points toward Democrats relative to the national average since 2012.

Race Note:

Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts, appointed in 2023 following Ben Sasse’s resignation, and elected in 2024 to complete the remainder of the term, is seeking a full term in 2026. Democrats have indicated they will not field a candidate, while independent Dan Osborn, who ran in the 2024 Senate race, has announced his candidacy. Osborn’s performance in 2024 was the strongest for an independent in a Nebraska Senate contest and the best showing for a challenger in a Republican-held seat that cycle.

Nebraska, a sparsely populated Great Plains state, has not elected a Democrat statewide since 2006 and has voted Republican in nearly every presidential election since 1867. Donald Trump carried the state by 21 points in 2024, one of his smallest gains nationwide, as Nebraska—like its northern neighbor Kansas—has shifted over 10 points toward Democrats relative to the national average since 2012.

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Nebraska
US Senate Forecast
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EPO forecasts ___________ is favored to win by __%
Candidate
Projection
R
Pete Ricketts Incumbent
__
__
I
Dan Osborn
__
__
Estimated Vote __
Membership Required
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County Prediction Population % of State
County 1 D+14.0 664,744 12.89%
County 2 R+4.5 423,355 8.21%
County 3 D+13.9 412,339 7.99%
County 4 D+55.1 261,608 5.07%
County 5 R+17.6 241,212 4.68%
County 6 R+60.0 235,969 4.58%
County 7 D+34.6 225,894 4.38%
County 8 R+25.7 187,847 3.64%
County 9 R+49.5 126,084 2.44%
County 10 D+39.8 118,942 2.31%
Nebraska Subscribe for rating
US Senate Forecast
EPO forecasts ___________ is favored to win by ___%
Candidate
Votes
Pct.
R
Pete Ricketts Incumbent
___
___
I
Dan Osborn
___
___
Estimated Vote ___
Membership Required
Subscribe or upgrade your membership to "Deep Dive" or "Insider" for EPO's live polling average, prediction market tracker, expert forecasts, recent election results, trends, and demographics; plus my county map and predictions.
View Membership Levels
Unlock the 2026 Nebraska Forecast for $1
for access to state-by-state predictions, poll averages, county maps, demographic data, and more.
Subscribe Now
County Prediction Population % of State
County 1 D+14.0 664,744 12.89%
County 2 R+4.5 423,355 8.21%
County 3 D+13.9 412,339 7.99%
County 4 D+55.1 261,608 5.07%
County 5 R+17.6 241,212 4.68%
County 6 R+60.0 235,969 4.58%
County 7 D+34.6 225,894 4.38%
County 8 R+25.7 187,847 3.64%
County 9 R+49.5 126,084 2.44%
County 10 D+39.8 118,942 2.31%

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