2026 New Hampshire Senate Forecast
2026 New Hampshire Senate Forecast
Last Updated: Friday, February 6, 2025, 11:08 AM ET
Race Note:
Incumbent Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, first elected in 2008, declined to seek a fourth term in 2026. This marks the first open Senate race in New Hampshire since 2010 and the first for this seat since 1990. Congressman Chris Pappas is the early front-runner for the Democratic nomination. On the Republican side, former U.S. Senator John E. Sununu—older brother of popular former Governor Chris Sununu—has launched a bid to reclaim the seat he lost to Shaheen in 2008, while former Massachusetts Senator and Ambassador Scott Brown is also running.
A New England state with a large independent electorate, New Hampshire has backed Democrats in every presidential election since 2004, each by a single-digit margin. In the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris carried the state by about 3 points—her narrowest margin of victory nationwide—down from Joe Biden’s 7-point win in 2020. Democrats currently hold both U.S. Senate seats and the state’s entire House delegation.
Race Note:
Incumbent Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, first elected in 2008, declined to seek a fourth term in 2026. This marks the first open Senate race in New
Hampshire since 2010 and the first for this seat since 1990. Congressman Chris Pappas is the early front-runner for the Democratic nomination. On the Republican side, former U.S. Senator John E. Sununu—older brother of popular former Governor Chris Sununu—has launched a bid to reclaim the seat he lost to Shaheen in 2008, while former Massachusetts Senator and Ambassador Scott Brown is also running.
A New England state with a large independent electorate, New Hampshire has backed Democrats in every presidential election since 2004, each by a single-digit margin. In the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris carried the state by about 3 points—her narrowest margin of victory nationwide—down from Joe Biden’s 7-point win in 2020. Democrats currently hold both U.S. Senate seats and the state’s entire House delegation.
| County | Prediction | Population | % of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| County 1 | D+14.0 | 664,744 | 12.89% |
| County 2 | R+4.5 | 423,355 | 8.21% |
| County 3 | D+13.9 | 412,339 | 7.99% |
| County 4 | D+55.1 | 261,608 | 5.07% |
| County 5 | R+17.6 | 241,212 | 4.68% |
| County 6 | R+60.0 | 235,969 | 4.58% |
| County 7 | D+34.6 | 225,894 | 4.38% |
| County 8 | R+25.7 | 187,847 | 3.64% |
| County 9 | R+49.5 | 126,084 | 2.44% |
| County 10 | D+39.8 | 118,942 | 2.31% |
| County | Prediction | Population | % of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| County 1 | D+14.0 | 664,744 | 12.89% |
| County 2 | R+4.5 | 423,355 | 8.21% |
| County 3 | D+13.9 | 412,339 | 7.99% |
| County 4 | D+55.1 | 261,608 | 5.07% |
| County 5 | R+17.6 | 241,212 | 4.68% |
| County 6 | R+60.0 | 235,969 | 4.58% |
| County 7 | D+34.6 | 225,894 | 4.38% |
| County 8 | R+25.7 | 187,847 | 3.64% |
| County 9 | R+49.5 | 126,084 | 2.44% |
| County 10 | D+39.8 | 118,942 | 2.31% |