2026 New Jersey Senate Forecast

2026 New Jersey Senate Forecast

Last Updated: Friday, February 11, 2025, 3:53 PM ET

Race Note:

Incumbent Democratic Sen. Cory Booker, first elected in a 2013 special election and re-elected in 2014 and 2020, is seeking a third full term in 2026. New Jersey, a densely populated Northeastern state, has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1992, usually by double digits.

In the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris carried the state by just under 6 points—the narrowest Democratic margin since 2004 and the closest a Republican has come to winning New Jersey since 1992. The shift reflected strong Republican gains among Hispanic and Italian American voters, particularly in the state’s majority-Hispanic towns, which swung about 25 points to the right. Despite this rightward movement, New Jersey remains a Democratic-leaning state at the federal level, and Booker enters the race as the clear favorite for re-election.

Race Note:

Incumbent Democratic Sen. Cory Booker, first elected in a 2013 special election and re-elected in 2014 and 2020, is seeking a third full term in 2026. New Jersey, a densely populated Northeastern state, has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1992, usually by double digits.

In the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris carried the state by just under 6 points—the narrowest Democratic margin since 2004 and the closest a Republican has come to winning New Jersey since 1992. The shift reflected strong Republican gains among Hispanic and Italian American voters, particularly in the state’s majority-Hispanic towns, which swung about 25 points to the right. Despite this rightward movement, New Jersey remains a Democratic-leaning state at the federal level, and Booker enters the race as the clear favorite for re-election.

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New Jersey
US Senate Forecast
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Candidate
Projection
D
Cory Booker Incumbent
0.0%
0
R
Edward Durr
0.0%
0
Estimated Vote 0
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County Prediction Population % of State
County 1 D+14.0 664,744 12.89%
County 2 R+4.5 423,355 8.21%
County 3 D+13.9 412,339 7.99%
County 4 D+55.1 261,608 5.07%
County 5 R+17.6 241,212 4.68%
County 6 R+60.0 235,969 4.58%
County 7 D+34.6 225,894 4.38%
County 8 R+25.7 187,847 3.64%
County 9 R+49.5 126,084 2.44%
County 10 D+39.8 118,942 2.31%
New Jersey Loading rating…
US Senate Forecast
Loading projection…
Candidate
Votes
Pct.
D Cory Booker Incumbent
0
0.0%
R Edward Durr
0
0.0%
Estimated Vote 0
Membership Required
Subscribe or upgrade your membership to "Presidential" or "Executive" for EPO's live polling average, prediction market tracker, expert forecasts, recent election results, trends, and demographics; plus my county map and predictions.
View Membership Levels
County Prediction Population % of State
County 1 D+14.0 664,744 12.89%
County 2 R+4.5 423,355 8.21%
County 3 D+13.9 412,339 7.99%
County 4 D+55.1 261,608 5.07%
County 5 R+17.6 241,212 4.68%
County 6 R+60.0 235,969 4.58%
County 7 D+34.6 225,894 4.38%
County 8 R+25.7 187,847 3.64%
County 9 R+49.5 126,084 2.44%
County 10 D+39.8 118,942 2.31%

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