2026 North Carolina Senate Forecast
2026 North Carolina Senate Forecast
Last Updated: Friday, February 6, 2025, 11:08 AM ET
Race Note:
Incumbent Republican Sen. Thom Tillis, first elected in 2014, declined to seek a third term after facing growing pressure from his right flank, including a 2023 censure by the state GOP and signals that Donald Trump was considering endorsing a primary challenger. North Carolina, a perennial battleground, has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 2008, though its last four Senate races were each decided by less than 6 points. For Republicans, former RNC chair Michael Whatley has secured President Donald Trump’s endorsement, while attorney Don Brown is also running. Democrats recruited former Governor Roy Cooper, widely viewed as the strongest non-incumbent candidate either party landed this cycle.
Although located in the Southern Bible Belt, North Carolina has been among the nation’s most competitive states in the 21st century, with five consecutive presidential elections decided by fewer than 5 points. Donald Trump carried the state by about 3 points in 2024. Republicans control both chambers of the General Assembly, a supermajority of the U.S. House delegation, and both Senate seats, while Democrats hold the governorship and most major statewide executive offices.
Race Note:
Incumbent Democratic Sen. Gary Peters, first elected in 2014, declined to seek a third term in 2026. Michigan, a key Rust Belt battleground, has voted for
the winning presidential candidate in every election since 2008 and is one of only two Democratic-held Senate seats up this cycle in states carried by Donald Trump in 2024. Trump narrowly won Michigan by 1.4%, though Michigan voted to the left of the nation for the first time since 2012. Republicans have not won a U.S. Senate race in Michigan since 1994 and have not held this particular seat since 1972.
The Democratic primary is a three-way race among former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed, State Senator Mallory McMorrow, and Congresswoman Haley Stevens, while former Congressman Mike Rogers, the 2024 GOP nominee, is expected to secure the Republican nomination. Democrats currently control all statewide executive offices, both U.S. Senate seats, and the Michigan Senate, while Republicans hold the state House and a majority of the U.S. House delegation.
| County | Prediction | Population | % of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| County 1 | D+14.0 | 664,744 | 12.89% |
| County 2 | R+4.5 | 423,355 | 8.21% |
| County 3 | D+13.9 | 412,339 | 7.99% |
| County 4 | D+55.1 | 261,608 | 5.07% |
| County 5 | R+17.6 | 241,212 | 4.68% |
| County 6 | R+60.0 | 235,969 | 4.58% |
| County 7 | D+34.6 | 225,894 | 4.38% |
| County 8 | R+25.7 | 187,847 | 3.64% |
| County 9 | R+49.5 | 126,084 | 2.44% |
| County 10 | D+39.8 | 118,942 | 2.31% |
| County | Prediction | Population | % of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| County 1 | D+14.0 | 664,744 | 12.89% |
| County 2 | R+4.5 | 423,355 | 8.21% |
| County 3 | D+13.9 | 412,339 | 7.99% |
| County 4 | D+55.1 | 261,608 | 5.07% |
| County 5 | R+17.6 | 241,212 | 4.68% |
| County 6 | R+60.0 | 235,969 | 4.58% |
| County 7 | D+34.6 | 225,894 | 4.38% |
| County 8 | R+25.7 | 187,847 | 3.64% |
| County 9 | R+49.5 | 126,084 | 2.44% |
| County 10 | D+39.8 | 118,942 | 2.31% |