2026 Oklahoma Senate Forecast
2026 Oklahoma Senate Forecast
Last Updated: Friday, February 6, 2025, 11:08 AM ET
Race Note:
Incumbent Republican Sen. Markwayne Mullin, first elected in a 2022 special election, is seeking his first full term in 2026. Mullin, a member of the Cherokee Nation, became the first Native American to represent Oklahoma in the U.S. Senate since 1925.
Oklahoma has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964 and has backed every Republican nominee by double digits since 1980. In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump carried the state by 34 points, as the Republican won every county in the state for a sixth consecutive presidential cycle. Despite being Trump’s fifth strongest state nationwide, Oklahoma recorded the smallest shift between 2020 and 2024, moving just over one point to the right.
Race Note:
Incumbent Republican Sen. Markwayne Mullin, first elected in a 2022 special election, is seeking his first full term in 2026. Mullin, a member of the Cherokee
Nation, became the first Native American to represent Oklahoma in the U.S. Senate since 1925.
Oklahoma has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964 and has backed every Republican nominee by double digits since 1980. In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump carried the state by 34 points, as the Republican won every county in the state for a sixth consecutive presidential cycle. Despite being Trump’s fifth strongest state nationwide, Oklahoma recorded the smallest shift between 2020 and 2024, moving just over one point to the right.
| County | Prediction | Population | % of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| County 1 | D+14.0 | 664,744 | 12.89% |
| County 2 | R+4.5 | 423,355 | 8.21% |
| County 3 | D+13.9 | 412,339 | 7.99% |
| County 4 | D+55.1 | 261,608 | 5.07% |
| County 5 | R+17.6 | 241,212 | 4.68% |
| County 6 | R+60.0 | 235,969 | 4.58% |
| County 7 | D+34.6 | 225,894 | 4.38% |
| County 8 | R+25.7 | 187,847 | 3.64% |
| County 9 | R+49.5 | 126,084 | 2.44% |
| County 10 | D+39.8 | 118,942 | 2.31% |
| County | Prediction | Population | % of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| County 1 | D+14.0 | 664,744 | 12.89% |
| County 2 | R+4.5 | 423,355 | 8.21% |
| County 3 | D+13.9 | 412,339 | 7.99% |
| County 4 | D+55.1 | 261,608 | 5.07% |
| County 5 | R+17.6 | 241,212 | 4.68% |
| County 6 | R+60.0 | 235,969 | 4.58% |
| County 7 | D+34.6 | 225,894 | 4.38% |
| County 8 | R+25.7 | 187,847 | 3.64% |
| County 9 | R+49.5 | 126,084 | 2.44% |
| County 10 | D+39.8 | 118,942 | 2.31% |