2026 Rhode Island Senate Forecast
2026 Rhode Island Senate Forecast
Last Updated: Friday, February 11, 2025, 3:53 PM ET
Race Note:
Incumbent Democratic Sen. Jack Reed, first elected in 1996, is seeking a fifth term in 2026. Rhode Island has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1988 and has not supported a Republican for president since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 landslide. Democrats dominate statewide politics, holding both U.S. Senate seats, all federal and statewide offices, and strong legislative majorities.
In the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris carried Rhode Island by 14 points, posting the narrowest Democratic margin in the state since 1988. Donald Trump’s performance marked the first time a Republican presidential nominee exceeded 40% of the vote in Rhode Island since that same year.
Race Note:
Incumbent Democratic Sen. Jack Reed, first elected in 1996, is seeking a fifth term in 2026. Rhode Island has voted Democratic in every
presidential election since 1988 and has not supported a Republican for president since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 landslide. Democrats dominate statewide politics, holding both U.S. Senate seats, all federal and statewide offices, and strong legislative majorities.
In the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris carried Rhode Island by 14 points, posting the narrowest Democratic margin in the state since 1988. Donald Trump’s performance marked the first time a Republican presidential nominee exceeded 40% of the vote in Rhode Island since that same year.
| County | Prediction | Population | % of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| County 1 | D+14.0 | 664,744 | 12.89% |
| County 2 | R+4.5 | 423,355 | 8.21% |
| County 3 | D+13.9 | 412,339 | 7.99% |
| County 4 | D+55.1 | 261,608 | 5.07% |
| County 5 | R+17.6 | 241,212 | 4.68% |
| County 6 | R+60.0 | 235,969 | 4.58% |
| County 7 | D+34.6 | 225,894 | 4.38% |
| County 8 | R+25.7 | 187,847 | 3.64% |
| County 9 | R+49.5 | 126,084 | 2.44% |
| County 10 | D+39.8 | 118,942 | 2.31% |
| County | Prediction | Population | % of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| County 1 | D+14.0 | 664,744 | 12.89% |
| County 2 | R+4.5 | 423,355 | 8.21% |
| County 3 | D+13.9 | 412,339 | 7.99% |
| County 4 | D+55.1 | 261,608 | 5.07% |
| County 5 | R+17.6 | 241,212 | 4.68% |
| County 6 | R+60.0 | 235,969 | 4.58% |
| County 7 | D+34.6 | 225,894 | 4.38% |
| County 8 | R+25.7 | 187,847 | 3.64% |
| County 9 | R+49.5 | 126,084 | 2.44% |
| County 10 | D+39.8 | 118,942 | 2.31% |