2026 South Carolina Senate Forecast

2026 South Carolina Senate Forecast

Last Updated: Wednesday, April 1, 2026, 11:10 AM ET

Race Note:

Incumbent Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, first elected in 2002, is seeking a fifth term in 2026 after winning re-election by 10 points in 2020 in what was expected to be a very close race, as his Democratic opponent Jaime Harrison raised the most money in Senate history at the time. South Carolina has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Jimmy Carter in 1976 and remains firmly Republican at both the federal and state levels.

In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump carried the state by 18 points, his largest margin in South Carolina to date and the GOP’s best performance since 1988. Republicans currently hold every statewide office except comptroller, supermajorities in both legislative chambers, both U.S. Senate seats, and six of seven U.S. House seats. Graham continues to suffer from poor approval ratings, but there is little indication of competitive movement heading into 2026.

Race Note:

Incumbent Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, first elected in 2002, is seeking a fifth term in 2026 after winning re-election by 10 points in 2020 in what was expected to be a very close race, as his Democratic opponent Jaime Harrison raised the most money in Senate history at the time. South Carolina has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Jimmy Carter in 1976 and remains firmly Republican at both the federal and state levels.

In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump carried the state by 18 points, his largest margin in South Carolina to date and the GOP’s best performance since 1988. Republicans currently hold every statewide office except comptroller, supermajorities in both legislative chambers, both U.S. Senate seats, and six of seven U.S. House seats. Graham continues to suffer from poor approval ratings, but there is little indication of competitive movement heading into 2026.

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South Carolina
US Senate Forecast
Subscribe for rating
EPO forecasts ___________ is favored to win by __%
Candidate
Projection
R
Lindsey Graham Incumbent
__
__
D
Annie Andrews
__
__
Estimated Vote __
Membership Required
Subscribe or upgrade your membership to "Deep Dive" or "Insider" for EPO's live polling average, prediction market tracker, expert forecasts, recent election results, trends, and demographics; plus my county map and predictions.
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County Prediction Population % of State
County 1 D+14.0 664,744 12.89%
County 2 R+4.5 423,355 8.21%
County 3 D+13.9 412,339 7.99%
County 4 D+55.1 261,608 5.07%
County 5 R+17.6 241,212 4.68%
County 6 R+60.0 235,969 4.58%
County 7 D+34.6 225,894 4.38%
County 8 R+25.7 187,847 3.64%
County 9 R+49.5 126,084 2.44%
County 10 D+39.8 118,942 2.31%
Unlock the 2026 South Carolina Forecast for $1
for access to state-by-state predictions, poll averages, county maps, demographic data, and more.
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South Carolina Subscribe for rating
US Senate Forecast
EPO forecasts ___________ is favored to win by ___%
Candidate
Votes
Pct.
R
Lindsey Graham Incumbent
___
___
D
Annie Andrews
___
___
Estimated Vote ___
Membership Required
Subscribe or upgrade your membership to "Deep Dive" or "Insider" for EPO's live polling average, prediction market tracker, expert forecasts, recent election results, trends, and demographics; plus my county map and predictions.
View Membership Levels
County Prediction Population % of State
County 1 D+14.0 664,744 12.89%
County 2 R+4.5 423,355 8.21%
County 3 D+13.9 412,339 7.99%
County 4 D+55.1 261,608 5.07%
County 5 R+17.6 241,212 4.68%
County 6 R+60.0 235,969 4.58%
County 7 D+34.6 225,894 4.38%
County 8 R+25.7 187,847 3.64%
County 9 R+49.5 126,084 2.44%
County 10 D+39.8 118,942 2.31%

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