2026 South Carolina Senate Forecast
2026 South Carolina Senate Forecast
Last Updated: Friday, February 6, 2025, 11:08 AM ET
Race Note:
Incumbent Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, first elected in 2002, is seeking a fifth term in 2026 after winning re-election by 10 points in 2020 in what was expected to be a very close race, as his Democratic opponent Jaime Harrison raised the most money in Senate history at the time. South Carolina has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Jimmy Carter in 1976 and remains firmly Republican at both the federal and state levels.
In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump carried the state by 18 points, his largest margin in South Carolina to date and the GOP’s best performance since 1988. Republicans currently hold every statewide office except comptroller, supermajorities in both legislative chambers, both U.S. Senate seats, and six of seven U.S. House seats. Graham continues to suffer from poor approval ratings, but there is little indication of competitive movement heading into 2026.
Race Note:
Incumbent Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, first elected in 2002, is seeking a fifth term in 2026 after winning re-election by 10 points in 2020 in what was
expected to be a very close race, as his Democratic opponent Jaime Harrison raised the most money in Senate history at the time. South Carolina has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Jimmy Carter in 1976 and remains firmly Republican at both the federal and state levels.
In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump carried the state by 18 points, his largest margin in South Carolina to date and the GOP’s best performance since 1988. Republicans currently hold every statewide office except comptroller, supermajorities in both legislative chambers, both U.S. Senate seats, and six of seven U.S. House seats. Graham continues to suffer from poor approval ratings, but there is little indication of competitive movement heading into 2026.
| County | Prediction | Population | % of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| County 1 | D+14.0 | 664,744 | 12.89% |
| County 2 | R+4.5 | 423,355 | 8.21% |
| County 3 | D+13.9 | 412,339 | 7.99% |
| County 4 | D+55.1 | 261,608 | 5.07% |
| County 5 | R+17.6 | 241,212 | 4.68% |
| County 6 | R+60.0 | 235,969 | 4.58% |
| County 7 | D+34.6 | 225,894 | 4.38% |
| County 8 | R+25.7 | 187,847 | 3.64% |
| County 9 | R+49.5 | 126,084 | 2.44% |
| County 10 | D+39.8 | 118,942 | 2.31% |
| County | Prediction | Population | % of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| County 1 | D+14.0 | 664,744 | 12.89% |
| County 2 | R+4.5 | 423,355 | 8.21% |
| County 3 | D+13.9 | 412,339 | 7.99% |
| County 4 | D+55.1 | 261,608 | 5.07% |
| County 5 | R+17.6 | 241,212 | 4.68% |
| County 6 | R+60.0 | 235,969 | 4.58% |
| County 7 | D+34.6 | 225,894 | 4.38% |
| County 8 | R+25.7 | 187,847 | 3.64% |
| County 9 | R+49.5 | 126,084 | 2.44% |
| County 10 | D+39.8 | 118,942 | 2.31% |