2026 South Dakota Senate Forecast
2026 South Dakota Senate Forecast
Last Updated: Friday, February 6, 2025, 11:08 AM ET
Race Note:
Incumbent Republican Sen. Mike Rounds, first elected in 2014, is seeking a third term in 2026 after winning re-election with 66% of the vote in 2020. South Dakota has voted Republican in 29 of the last 33 presidential elections, with the only Democratic victory since 1940 occurring during Lyndon B. Johnson’s 1964 landslide. In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump carried the state by 29 points, maintaining South Dakota’s status as one of the GOP’s most dependable strongholds. Republicans currently hold both U.S. Senate seats, all statewide offices, and large majorities in the state legislature.
Race Note:
Incumbent Republican Sen. Mike Rounds, first elected in 2014, is seeking a third term after winning re-election with 66% of the vote in 2020. South
Dakota has voted Republican in 29 of the last 33 presidential elections, with the only Democratic victory since 1940 occurring during Lyndon B. Johnson’s 1964 landslide.
In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump carried the state by 29 points, maintaining South Dakota’s status as one of the GOP’s most dependable strongholds. Republicans currently hold both U.S. Senate seats, all statewide offices, and large majorities in the state legislature.
| County | Prediction | Population | % of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| County 1 | D+14.0 | 664,744 | 12.89% |
| County 2 | R+4.5 | 423,355 | 8.21% |
| County 3 | D+13.9 | 412,339 | 7.99% |
| County 4 | D+55.1 | 261,608 | 5.07% |
| County 5 | R+17.6 | 241,212 | 4.68% |
| County 6 | R+60.0 | 235,969 | 4.58% |
| County 7 | D+34.6 | 225,894 | 4.38% |
| County 8 | R+25.7 | 187,847 | 3.64% |
| County 9 | R+49.5 | 126,084 | 2.44% |
| County 10 | D+39.8 | 118,942 | 2.31% |
| County | Prediction | Population | % of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| County 1 | D+14.0 | 664,744 | 12.89% |
| County 2 | R+4.5 | 423,355 | 8.21% |
| County 3 | D+13.9 | 412,339 | 7.99% |
| County 4 | D+55.1 | 261,608 | 5.07% |
| County 5 | R+17.6 | 241,212 | 4.68% |
| County 6 | R+60.0 | 235,969 | 4.58% |
| County 7 | D+34.6 | 225,894 | 4.38% |
| County 8 | R+25.7 | 187,847 | 3.64% |
| County 9 | R+49.5 | 126,084 | 2.44% |
| County 10 | D+39.8 | 118,942 | 2.31% |