2026 West Virginia Senate Forecast
2026 West Virginia Senate Forecast
Last Updated: Friday, February 6, 2025, 11:08 AM ET
Race Note:
Incumbent Republican Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, first elected in 2014, is seeking a third term in 2026. Once a Democratic stronghold, West Virginia has undergone one of the sharpest partisan realignments in the nation, with Republicans now dominating every level of government. Donald Trump carried the state for a third consecutive time in 2024, winning every county and securing just under 70% of the vote—a 42-point margin and the highest share any candidate has ever received in the state’s history.
West Virginia has not voted for a Democratic presidential nominee since 1996 and has backed Republicans by double digits in every election since 2000. Republicans currently hold both U.S. Senate seats, all statewide offices, and supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature.
Race Note:
Incumbent Republican Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, first elected in 2014, is seeking a third term in 2026. Once a Democratic stronghold, West Virginia has
undergone one of the sharpest partisan realignments in the nation, with Republicans now dominating every level of government. Donald Trump carried the state for a third consecutive time in 2024, winning every county and securing just under 70% of the vote—a 42-point margin and the highest share any candidate has ever received in the state’s history.
West Virginia has not voted for a Democratic presidential nominee since 1996 and has backed Republicans by double digits in every election since 2000. Republicans currently hold both U.S. Senate seats, all statewide offices, and supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature.
| County | Prediction | Population | % of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| County 1 | D+14.0 | 664,744 | 12.89% |
| County 2 | R+4.5 | 423,355 | 8.21% |
| County 3 | D+13.9 | 412,339 | 7.99% |
| County 4 | D+55.1 | 261,608 | 5.07% |
| County 5 | R+17.6 | 241,212 | 4.68% |
| County 6 | R+60.0 | 235,969 | 4.58% |
| County 7 | D+34.6 | 225,894 | 4.38% |
| County 8 | R+25.7 | 187,847 | 3.64% |
| County 9 | R+49.5 | 126,084 | 2.44% |
| County 10 | D+39.8 | 118,942 | 2.31% |
| County | Prediction | Population | % of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| County 1 | D+14.0 | 664,744 | 12.89% |
| County 2 | R+4.5 | 423,355 | 8.21% |
| County 3 | D+13.9 | 412,339 | 7.99% |
| County 4 | D+55.1 | 261,608 | 5.07% |
| County 5 | R+17.6 | 241,212 | 4.68% |
| County 6 | R+60.0 | 235,969 | 4.58% |
| County 7 | D+34.6 | 225,894 | 4.38% |
| County 8 | R+25.7 | 187,847 | 3.64% |
| County 9 | R+49.5 | 126,084 | 2.44% |
| County 10 | D+39.8 | 118,942 | 2.31% |