2026 Florida Senate Forecast
2026 Florida Senate Forecast
Last Updated: Friday, February 11, 2025, 3:53 PM ET
Race Note:
The 2026 United States Senate special election in Florida will fill the remaining two years of former Republican Sen. Marco Rubio’s term following his resignation to become U.S. Secretary of State under President Donald Trump’s second administration. Governor Ron DeSantis appointed Attorney General Ashley Moody to the seat, and she is running in the special election to complete the term.
Once the nation’s most prominent swing state, Florida has shifted decisively toward the GOP in recent years. In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris by 13 points—the largest margin in Florida since 1988—and carried all three of the state’s majority-Hispanic counties, including flipping Miami-Dade. The state’s sharp rightward movement, driven largely by growing Republican strength among Latino voters, has left Democrats uncompetitive in statewide contests, and the 2026 race is not expected to be closely contested.
Race Note:
The 2026 United States Senate special election in Florida will fill the remaining two years of former Republican Sen. Marco Rubio’s term following
his resignation to become U.S. Secretary of State under President Donald Trump’s second administration. Governor Ron DeSantis appointed Attorney General Ashley Moody to the seat, and she is running in the special election to complete the term. Once the nation’s most prominent swing state, Florida has shifted decisively toward the GOP in recent years.
In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris by 13 points—the largest margin in Florida since 1988—and carried all three of the state’s majority-Hispanic counties, including flipping Miami-Dade. The state’s sharp rightward movement, driven largely by growing Republican strength among Latino voters, has left Democrats uncompetitive in statewide contests, and the 2026 race is not expected to be closely contested.
| County | Prediction | Population | % of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| County 1 | D+14.0 | 664,744 | 12.89% |
| County 2 | R+4.5 | 423,355 | 8.21% |
| County 3 | D+13.9 | 412,339 | 7.99% |
| County 4 | D+55.1 | 261,608 | 5.07% |
| County 5 | R+17.6 | 241,212 | 4.68% |
| County 6 | R+60.0 | 235,969 | 4.58% |
| County 7 | D+34.6 | 225,894 | 4.38% |
| County 8 | R+25.7 | 187,847 | 3.64% |
| County 9 | R+49.5 | 126,084 | 2.44% |
| County 10 | D+39.8 | 118,942 | 2.31% |
| County | Prediction | Population | % of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| County 1 | D+14.0 | 664,744 | 12.89% |
| County 2 | R+4.5 | 423,355 | 8.21% |
| County 3 | D+13.9 | 412,339 | 7.99% |
| County 4 | D+55.1 | 261,608 | 5.07% |
| County 5 | R+17.6 | 241,212 | 4.68% |
| County 6 | R+60.0 | 235,969 | 4.58% |
| County 7 | D+34.6 | 225,894 | 4.38% |
| County 8 | R+25.7 | 187,847 | 3.64% |
| County 9 | R+49.5 | 126,084 | 2.44% |
| County 10 | D+39.8 | 118,942 | 2.31% |