2026 Michigan Senate Forecast
2026 Michigan Senate Forecast
Last Updated: Friday, March 27, 2025, 1:40 PM ET
Race Note:
Incumbent Democratic Sen. Gary Peters, first elected in 2014, declined to seek a third term in 2026. Michigan, a key Rust Belt battleground, has voted for the winning presidential candidate in every election since 2008 and is one of only two Democratic-held Senate seats up this cycle in states carried by Donald Trump in 2024. Trump narrowly won Michigan by 1.4%, though Michigan voted to the left of the nation for the first time since 2012. Republicans have not won a U.S. Senate race in Michigan since 1994 and have not held this particular seat since 1972.
The Democratic primary is a three-way race among former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed, State Senator Mallory McMorrow, and Congresswoman Haley Stevens, while former Congressman Mike Rogers, the 2024 GOP nominee, is expected to secure the Republican nomination. Democrats currently control all statewide executive offices, both U.S. Senate seats, and the Michigan Senate, while Republicans hold the state House and a majority of the U.S. House delegation.
Race Note:
Incumbent Democratic Sen. Gary Peters, first elected in 2014, declined to seek a third term in 2026. Michigan, a key Rust Belt battleground, has voted for
the winning presidential candidate in every election since 2008 and is one of only two Democratic-held Senate seats up this cycle in states carried by Donald Trump in 2024. Trump narrowly won Michigan by 1.4%, though Michigan voted to the left of the nation for the first time since 2012. Republicans have not won a U.S. Senate race in Michigan since 1994 and have not held this particular seat since 1972.
The Democratic primary is a three-way race among former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed, State Senator Mallory McMorrow, and Congresswoman Haley Stevens, while former Congressman Mike Rogers, the 2024 GOP nominee, is expected to secure the Republican nomination. Democrats currently control all statewide executive offices, both U.S. Senate seats, and the Michigan Senate, while Republicans hold the state House and a majority of the U.S. House delegation.
| County | Prediction | Population | % of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| County 1 | D+14.0 | 664,744 | 12.89% |
| County 2 | R+4.5 | 423,355 | 8.21% |
| County 3 | D+13.9 | 412,339 | 7.99% |
| County 4 | D+55.1 | 261,608 | 5.07% |
| County 5 | R+17.6 | 241,212 | 4.68% |
| County 6 | R+60.0 | 235,969 | 4.58% |
| County 7 | D+34.6 | 225,894 | 4.38% |
| County 8 | R+25.7 | 187,847 | 3.64% |
| County 9 | R+49.5 | 126,084 | 2.44% |
| County 10 | D+39.8 | 118,942 | 2.31% |
| County | Prediction | Population | % of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| County 1 | D+14.0 | 664,744 | 12.89% |
| County 2 | R+4.5 | 423,355 | 8.21% |
| County 3 | D+13.9 | 412,339 | 7.99% |
| County 4 | D+55.1 | 261,608 | 5.07% |
| County 5 | R+17.6 | 241,212 | 4.68% |
| County 6 | R+60.0 | 235,969 | 4.58% |
| County 7 | D+34.6 | 225,894 | 4.38% |
| County 8 | R+25.7 | 187,847 | 3.64% |
| County 9 | R+49.5 | 126,084 | 2.44% |
| County 10 | D+39.8 | 118,942 | 2.31% |
you should add how many votes each candidate will get out of each county.