2026 Minnesota Senate Forecast
2026 Minnesota Senate Forecast
Last Updated: Friday, February 11, 2025, 3:53 PM ET
Race Note:
Incumbent Democratic Sen. Tina Smith, first appointed in 2018, is not seeking re-election in 2026, setting up the first open U.S. Senate contest in Minnesota in over a decade. The Democratic primary is being contested between Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan and Congresswoman Angie Craig, while former NBA player and 2024 GOP nominee Royce White and former Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze are leading the Republican field. Minnesota has not elected a Republican to statewide office since 2006.
Kamala Harris carried Minnesota by 4 points in the 2024 presidential election, marking the state’s thirteenth consecutive Democratic win—the longest active streak in the nation. Though Minnesota leans Democratic, no Democrat has won more than 55% of the presidential vote since 1964, and both parties continue to view it as a potential battleground. Democrats currently control all statewide offices, both U.S. Senate seats, and hold narrow majorities in the state legislature, while the U.S. House delegation is evenly split.
Race Note:
Incumbent Democratic Sen. Tina Smith, first appointed in 2018, is not seeking re-election in 2026, setting up the first open U.S. Senate contest in
Minnesota in over a decade. The Democratic primary is being contested between Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan and Congresswoman Angie Craig, while former NBA player and 2024 GOP nominee Royce White and former Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze are leading the Republican field. Minnesota has not elected a Republican to statewide office since 2006.
Kamala Harris carried Minnesota by 4 points in the 2024 presidential election, marking the state’s thirteenth consecutive Democratic win—the longest active streak in the nation. Though Minnesota leans Democratic, no Democrat has won more than 55% of the presidential vote since 1964, and both parties continue to view it as a potential battleground. Democrats currently control all statewide offices, both U.S. Senate seats, and hold narrow majorities in the state legislature, while the U.S. House delegation is evenly split.
| County | Prediction | Population | % of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| County 1 | D+14.0 | 664,744 | 12.89% |
| County 2 | R+4.5 | 423,355 | 8.21% |
| County 3 | D+13.9 | 412,339 | 7.99% |
| County 4 | D+55.1 | 261,608 | 5.07% |
| County 5 | R+17.6 | 241,212 | 4.68% |
| County 6 | R+60.0 | 235,969 | 4.58% |
| County 7 | D+34.6 | 225,894 | 4.38% |
| County 8 | R+25.7 | 187,847 | 3.64% |
| County 9 | R+49.5 | 126,084 | 2.44% |
| County 10 | D+39.8 | 118,942 | 2.31% |
| County | Prediction | Population | % of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| County 1 | D+14.0 | 664,744 | 12.89% |
| County 2 | R+4.5 | 423,355 | 8.21% |
| County 3 | D+13.9 | 412,339 | 7.99% |
| County 4 | D+55.1 | 261,608 | 5.07% |
| County 5 | R+17.6 | 241,212 | 4.68% |
| County 6 | R+60.0 | 235,969 | 4.58% |
| County 7 | D+34.6 | 225,894 | 4.38% |
| County 8 | R+25.7 | 187,847 | 3.64% |
| County 9 | R+49.5 | 126,084 | 2.44% |
| County 10 | D+39.8 | 118,942 | 2.31% |