Election Results Overview
This first EP election cycle produced a narrow Democratic advantage overall, with several competitive and closely decided races across states. See full results under "01 General Election" here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1maJAAiu6OZTZFnOqSJ0_8vaSBxKm3MXwG8MnDx8Hi4U/edit?usp=sharing
Topline Control
Senate
Democrats: 5
Republicans: 3
Governors
Democrats: 5
Republicans: 3
House
Democrats: 13
Republicans: 11
Full Results
Beacon
Senate
Patrick Skipper (D): 56.1% (+15.3)
Liam Darnold (R): 40.8%
Governor
Gears Braixen (R): 51.9% (+6.6)
Cameron Byrd (D): 45.3%
House District 1
Mira Giunta (D): 60.9% (+25.3)
Jason Miller (NPC) (R): 35.6%
House District 2
Adam Hathaway (D): 52.4% (+8.5)
Zane Whitlock (NPC) (R): 43.9%
House District 3
Sean Curcio (R): 50.0% (+3.2)
Marcus Bennett (NPC) (D): 46.8%
Chesapeake
Senate
Marty Byrne (D): 53.1% (+10.0)
Alyssa Ramirez (NPC) (R): 43.1%
Governor
Nathaniel Richardson (D): 58.0% (+19.8)
Tyler Brooks (NPC) (R): 38.2%
House District 1
Peter Leyba (D): 56.0% (+15.5)
Dave Jones (R): 40.5%
House District 2
Jake Leighton (D): 57.4% (+18.6)
Danielle Foster (NPC) (R): 38.8%
House District 3
Brandon Hayes (NPC) (R): 48.2% (+0.5)
Nicole Sanders (NPC) (D): 47.7%
Appalachia
Senate
Seth Zerambo (R): 49.7% (+2.8)
Kevin Porter (NPC) (D): 46.9%
Governor
Eric Carter (D): 59.0% (+21.9)
Kieran Hollis (NPC) (R): 37.1%
House District 1
Jonathan Allen (R): 49.4% (+2.2)
Tommy Walker (D): 47.2%
House District 2
Brent McKee (R): 55.0% (+13.6)
Amber Jenkins (NPC) (D): 41.4%
House District 3
Daniel Mercer (D): 51.5% (+6.8)
Orion Caldwell (NPC) (R): 44.7%
Magnolia
Senate
Joshua Black (R): 62.3% (+28.5)
Derek Simmons (NPC) (D): 33.8%
Governor
Isaac Sands (R): 50.1% (+3.0)
Eric Mathew Aura (D): 47.1%
House District 1
Kobe Hawthorne (D): 50.8% (+5.5)
Beau Calloway (NPC) (R): 45.3%
House District 2
Dexter Aura (D): 51.1% (+5.6)
Buckley Boone (NPC) (R): 45.5%
House District 3
Woody Brown Jr (R): 61.8% (+26.5)
Kayla Bryant (NPC) (D): 35.3%
Lakeshore
Senate
Kate Shepherd (D): 56.4% (+16.4)
Sebastian Holuska (R): 40.0%
Governor
Rainbow Dash (D): 54.1% (+11.7)
Ryan Arnold (R): 42.4%
House District 1
Mason Logar (D): 51.8% (+7.1)
Elliot Vance (NPC) (R): 44.7%
House District 2
Lily Arcadia (R): 51.4% (+6.0)
Holden Koza (D): 45.4%
House District 3
Kelly van Stuer (R): 55.9% (+14.8)
Ryan Delgado (NPC) (D): 41.1%
Amarillo
Senate
Tyler Trupia (R): 49.5% (+2.5)
Erica Morales (NPC) (D): 47.0%
Governor
Travis Dalton (NPC) (R): 51.6% (+7.4)
Zachary Coleman (NPC) (D): 44.2%
House District 1
John Davis (R): 51.8% (+6.8)
Crystal Alvarez (NPC) (D): 45.0%
House District 2
Mason McCarty (D): 52.6% (+8.7)
Jordan Whitaker (NPC) (R): 43.9%
House District 3
Kari Blake (R): 48.5% (+0.4)
Chloe Kaine (D): 48.1%
Heartland
Senate
Mark Bennett (D): 50.4% (+4.1)
Toby Coleman (R): 46.3%
Governor
Ryan Gest Jr. (D): 53.5% (+10.5)
Paige Hunter (NPC) (R): 43.0%
House District 1
Alexandra Rivera (D): 51.5% (+6.6)
Sean Bishop (NPC) (R): 44.9%
House District 2
Lauren Whitaker (D): 50.4% (+4.0)
Connor Wallace (NPC) (R): 46.4%
House District 3
Trenton Tharp (R): 51.2% (+5.6)
Nathan Ford (NPC) (D): 45.6%
Pacifica
Senate
Hayden Brawn (D): 52.7% (+9.0)
Blake Carpenter (NPC) (R): 43.7%
Governor
Jerome Raventon (D): 52.7% (+8.8)
Garrett Lawson (NPC) (R): 43.9%
House District 1
Finn Reynolds (D): 56.5% (+16.7)
Lauren Kelly (NPC) (R): 39.8%
House District 2
Jared Woods (NPC) (R): 48.3% (+1.1)
Anahi Rubio (D): 47.2%
House District 3
John Anderson (D): 55.2% (+13.8)
Cole Matthews (NPC) (R): 41.4%
Biggest Overperformers vs. Partisan Lean
These candidates performed best relative to their state or district baseline.
Eric Carter (D), Appalachia Governor
R+5 state, won by 22.0 → ~27-point overperformance
Mason McCarty (D), Amarillo House District 2
R+18 district, won by 8.7 → ~27-point overperformance
Sean Curcio (R), Beacon House District 3
D+22 district, won by 3.2 → ~25-point overperformance
Gears Braixen (R), Beacon Governor
D+18 state, won by 6.6 → ~25-point overperformance
Kate Shepherd (D), Lakeshore Senate
R+2 state, won by 16.4 → ~18-point overperformance
Ryan Gest Jr. (D), Heartland Governor
R+7 state, won by 10.5 → ~17-point overperformance
Joshua Black (R), Magnolia Senate
R+12 state, won by 28.5 → ~17-point overperformance
Nathaniel Richardson (D), Chesapeake Governor
D+3 state, won by 19.8 → ~17-point overperformance
Peter Leyba (D), Chesapeake House District 1
Even district, won by 15.5
Jake Leighton (D), Chesapeake House District 2
Even district, won by 18.6
Other Takeaways
1. Republicans won key races in blue areas
Republicans notched important wins in Democratic-leaning territory, especially in Beacon, where they captured the governorship and held a House seat despite the state’s strong Democratic lean.
2. Appalachia governor race stood out
Eric Carter dramatically outperformed the baseline in a Republican-leaning state. Meanwhile, Republicans still carried other races there, pointing to a candidate-specific advantage rather than a broader partisan shift.
3. Magnolia showed split-ticket behavior
Republicans dominated statewide races, but Democrats still secured two House districts. Outcomes varied significantly depending on the office.
4. Extremely high spending in Lakeshore District 2
This race saw by far the highest spending:
- Holden Koza (D): $30.67M spent
- Lily Arcadia (R): $41.10M spent
Despite this, the result remained fairly typical for the district, with Arcadia winning by 6.0 points.
6. NPC candidates generally underperformed
Most NPC candidates lost or ran behind expectations. While a few were competitive or won, they typically did not exceed partisan baselines.
7. Closest race
Amarillo House District 3 was the tightest contest:
Kari Blake (R): 48.5% (+0.4)
Chloe Kaine (D): 48.1%
Rankings
Best Democratic Overperformances
Eric Carter (D), Appalachia Governor — won by 22.0 in an R+5 state (~+27)
Mason McCarty (D), Amarillo District 2 — won by 8.7 in an R+18 district (~+27)
Kate Shepherd (D), Lakeshore Senate — won by 16.4 in an R+2 state (~+18)
Ryan Gest Jr. (D), Heartland Governor — won by 10.5 in an R+7 state (~+17)
Nathaniel Richardson (D), Chesapeake Governor — won by 19.8 in a D+3 state (~+17)
Best Republican Overperformances
Sean Curcio (R), Beacon District 3 — won by 3.2 in a D+22 district (~+25)
Gears Braixen (R), Beacon Governor — won by 6.6 in a D+18 state (~+25)
Joshua Black (R), Magnolia Senate — won by 28.5 in an R+12 state (~+17)
Jared Woods (NPC) (R), Pacifica District 2 — won by 1.1 in a D+7 district (~+8)
Kari Blake (R), Amarillo District 3 — won by 0.4 in an R+2 district (~+2)
Biggest Spenders
Lily Arcadia (R), Lakeshore District 2 — $41.10M
Holden Koza (D), Lakeshore District 2 — $30.67M
Joshua Black (R), Magnolia Senate — $9.96M
Mason McCarty (D), Amarillo District 2 — $7.31M
Jonathan Allen (R), Appalachia District 1 — $7.12M