Track Record
96.3% Accuracy Rating Since 2020
Reliable Forecasting, Proven Over Time
A Track Record of Accuracy Across Election Cycles
Since 2020, my election forecasts have consistently delivered unmatched accuracy across both presidential and Senate races.
I measure success not by headlines, but by data. Explore my verified track record below to see how my accuracy has evolved across multiple election cycles — a reflection of my commitment to rigorous analysis and evidence-based forecasting.
Reliable Forecasting, Proven Over Time
A Track Record of Accuracy Across Election Cycles
Since 2020, my election forecasts have consistently delivered unmatched accuracy across both presidential and Senate races.
I measure success not by headlines, but by data. Explore my verified track record below to see how my accuracy has evolved across multiple election cycles — a reflection of my commitment to rigorous analysis and evidence-based forecasting.
2024 Presidential Election
In 2024, my forecast correctly projected the outcome in 49 of 50 states, missing only Michigan. From the start of the cycle, I consistently predicted that Donald Trump would win a majority of swing states and ultimately defeat Kamala Harris, even as most forecasters viewed the race as a coin flip — with many expecting Harris to win half the battlegrounds or even the presidency outright. I never wavered from my forecast, maintaining confidence in Trump’s path to victory well before President Joe Biden withdrew from the race.
2024 US Senate Elections
In the 2024 Senate elections, my forecast accurately projected 34 of 35 races, missing only Pennsylvania — the closest contest of the cycle by final margin. Throughout the year, I maintained that Republicans were favored to flip control of the Senate, forecasting a 52-seat majority. When the results came in, the GOP ultimately secured 53 seats.
2022 US Senate Elections
In the 2024 Senate elections, my forecast accurately projected 34 of 35 races, missing only Pennsylvania — the closest contest of the cycle by final margin. Throughout the year, I maintained that Republicans were favored to flip control of the Senate, forecasting a 52-seat majority. When the results came in, the GOP ultimately secured 53 seats.
2020 Presidential Election
In the 2020 election, my forecast correctly projected 49 of 50 states, missing only Georgia (the closest race of the cycle). While widespread polling errors undermined many forecasts across the industry, my model accurately anticipated a more muted Biden victory, with final projected margins within the margin of error in 42 of 50 states.
2024 Presidential Election
In 2024, my forecast correctly projected the outcome in 49 of 50 states, missing only Michigan. From the start of the cycle, I consistently predicted that Donald Trump would win a majority of swing states and ultimately defeat Kamala Harris, even as most forecasters viewed the race as a coin flip — with many expecting Harris to win half the battlegrounds or even the presidency outright. I never wavered from my forecast, maintaining confidence in Trump’s path to victory well before President Joe Biden withdrew from the race.
2024 US Senate Elections
In the 2024 Senate elections, my forecast accurately projected 34 of 35 races, missing only Pennsylvania — the closest contest of the cycle by final margin. Throughout the year, I maintained that Republicans were favored to flip control of the Senate, forecasting a 52-seat majority. When the results came in, the GOP ultimately secured 53 seats.
2022 US Senate Elections
In the 2022 midterms, my forecast correctly projected 34 of 35 Senate races, missing only Georgia — which was ultimately decided in a runoff. From early in the cycle, I maintained that Democrats were favored to retain control of the Senate, defying many forecasts that anticipated a Republican sweep of both chambers of Congress. The results confirmed that outlook, as Democrats narrowly held their majority and weathered a muted Republican wave in the first midterm of the Biden presidency.
2020 Presidential Election
In the 2020 election, my forecast correctly projected 49 of 50 states, missing only Georgia (the closest race of the cycle). While widespread polling errors undermined many forecasts across the industry, my model accurately anticipated a more muted Biden victory, with final projected margins within the margin of error in 42 of 50 states.