2026 Idaho Senate Forecast
2026 Idaho Senate Forecast
Last Updated: Friday, February 11, 2025, 3:53 PM ET
Race Note:
Incumbent Republican Sen. Jim Risch, first elected in 2008, is seeking a fourth term in 2026. Risch was re-elected in 2020 with 63% of the vote and remains heavily favored in a state that has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1974. Democratic 2022 nominee David Roth is running again, though he faces steep odds in a state that has consistently delivered some of the GOP’s strongest margins nationwide. In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump carried Idaho by 37 points, his third strongest showing nationally. Idaho’s Republican dominance extends across nearly all levels of government, with the party controlling both U.S. Senate seats, every statewide office, and large majorities in the state legislature.
Race Note:
Incumbent Republican Sen. Jim Risch, first elected in 2008, is seeking a fourth term in 2026. Risch was re-elected in 2020 with 63% of the vote and remains
heavily favored in a state that has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1974. Democratic 2022 nominee David Roth is running again, though he faces steep odds in a state that has consistently delivered some of the GOP’s strongest margins nationwide.
In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump carried Idaho by 37 points, his third strongest showing nationally. Idaho’s Republican dominance extends across nearly all levels of government, with the party controlling both U.S. Senate seats, every statewide office, and large majorities in the state legislature.
| County | Prediction | Population | % of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| County 1 | D+14.0 | 664,744 | 12.89% |
| County 2 | R+4.5 | 423,355 | 8.21% |
| County 3 | D+13.9 | 412,339 | 7.99% |
| County 4 | D+55.1 | 261,608 | 5.07% |
| County 5 | R+17.6 | 241,212 | 4.68% |
| County 6 | R+60.0 | 235,969 | 4.58% |
| County 7 | D+34.6 | 225,894 | 4.38% |
| County 8 | R+25.7 | 187,847 | 3.64% |
| County 9 | R+49.5 | 126,084 | 2.44% |
| County 10 | D+39.8 | 118,942 | 2.31% |
| County | Prediction | Population | % of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| County 1 | D+14.0 | 664,744 | 12.89% |
| County 2 | R+4.5 | 423,355 | 8.21% |
| County 3 | D+13.9 | 412,339 | 7.99% |
| County 4 | D+55.1 | 261,608 | 5.07% |
| County 5 | R+17.6 | 241,212 | 4.68% |
| County 6 | R+60.0 | 235,969 | 4.58% |
| County 7 | D+34.6 | 225,894 | 4.38% |
| County 8 | R+25.7 | 187,847 | 3.64% |
| County 9 | R+49.5 | 126,084 | 2.44% |
| County 10 | D+39.8 | 118,942 | 2.31% |