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2026 South Dakota Senate Forecast

2026 South Dakota Senate Forecast

Last Updated: Friday, March 27, 2025, 1:40 PM ET

Race Note:

Incumbent Republican Sen. Mike Rounds, first elected in 2014, is seeking a third term in 2026 after winning re-election with 66% of the vote in 2020. South Dakota has voted Republican in 29 of the last 33 presidential elections, with the only Democratic victory since 1940 occurring during Lyndon B. Johnson’s 1964 landslide. In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump carried the state by 29 points, maintaining South Dakota’s status as one of the GOP’s most dependable strongholds. Republicans currently hold both U.S. Senate seats, all statewide offices, and large majorities in the state legislature.

Race Note:

Incumbent Republican Sen. Mike Rounds, first elected in 2014, is seeking a third term after winning re-election with 66% of the vote in 2020. South Dakota has voted Republican in 29 of the last 33 presidential elections, with the only Democratic victory since 1940 occurring during Lyndon B. Johnson’s 1964 landslide.

In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump carried the state by 29 points, maintaining South Dakota’s status as one of the GOP’s most dependable strongholds. Republicans currently hold both U.S. Senate seats, all statewide offices, and large majorities in the state legislature.

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South Dakota
US Senate Forecast
Subscribe for rating
EPO forecasts ___________ is favored to win by __%
Candidate
Projection
R
Mike Rounds Incumbent
__
__
D
Julian Beaudion
__
__
Estimated Vote __
Membership Required
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County Prediction Population % of State
County 1 D+14.0 664,744 12.89%
County 2 R+4.5 423,355 8.21%
County 3 D+13.9 412,339 7.99%
County 4 D+55.1 261,608 5.07%
County 5 R+17.6 241,212 4.68%
County 6 R+60.0 235,969 4.58%
County 7 D+34.6 225,894 4.38%
County 8 R+25.7 187,847 3.64%
County 9 R+49.5 126,084 2.44%
County 10 D+39.8 118,942 2.31%
Unlock the 2026 South Dakota Forecast for $1
for access to state-by-state predictions, poll averages, county maps, demographic data, and more.
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South Dakota Subscribe for rating
US Senate Forecast
EPO forecasts ___________ is favored to win by ___%
Candidate
Votes
Pct.
R
Mike Rounds Incumbent
___
___
D
Julian Beaudion
___
___
Estimated Vote ___
Membership Required
Subscribe or upgrade your membership to "Deep Dive" or "Insider" for EPO's live polling average, prediction market tracker, expert forecasts, recent election results, trends, and demographics; plus my county map and predictions.
View Membership Levels
County Prediction Population % of State
County 1 D+14.0 664,744 12.89%
County 2 R+4.5 423,355 8.21%
County 3 D+13.9 412,339 7.99%
County 4 D+55.1 261,608 5.07%
County 5 R+17.6 241,212 4.68%
County 6 R+60.0 235,969 4.58%
County 7 D+34.6 225,894 4.38%
County 8 R+25.7 187,847 3.64%
County 9 R+49.5 126,084 2.44%
County 10 D+39.8 118,942 2.31%

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