2026 Alabama Senate Forecast
2026 Alabama Senate Forecast
Last Updated: Friday, February 11, 2025, 3:53 PM ET
Race Note:
Incumbent Republican Sen. Tommy Tuberville, first elected in 2020, opted to run for governor in 2026 instead of seeking a second Senate term, creating Alabama’s first open race for its Class II Senate seat in three decades. Several prominent Republicans—including Attorney General Steve Marshall, Congressman Barry Moore, and businessmen Jared Hudson and Rodney Walker—are vying for the GOP nomination, and the eventual nominee will enter the general election as a heavy favorite.
Alabama remains one of the most reliably Republican states in the nation, with Donald Trump carrying it by 30 points in the 2024 presidential election—Republicans’ largest margin in the state since 1972. Democrats have not won a statewide race in Alabama since Doug Jones’ narrow 2017 special election upset—and he was defeated by more than 20 points just three years later. Republicans hold supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature and dominate the state’s congressional delegation, underscoring the steep challenge any Democrat would face in this contest.
Race Note:
Incumbent Republican Sen. Tommy Tuberville, first elected in 2020, opted to run for governor in 2026 instead of seeking a second Senate term, creating
Alabama’s first open race for its Class II Senate seat in three decades. Several prominent Republicans—including Attorney General Steve Marshall, Congressman Barry Moore, and businessmen Jared Hudson and Rodney Walker—are vying for the GOP nomination, and the eventual nominee will enter the general election as a heavy favorite.
Alabama remains one of the most reliably Republican states in the nation, with Donald Trump carrying it by 30 points in the 2024 presidential election—Republicans' largest margin in the state since 1972. Democrats have not won a statewide race in Alabama since Doug Jones’ narrow 2017 special election upset—and he was defeated by more than 20 points just three years later. Republicans hold supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature and dominate the state’s congressional delegation, underscoring the steep challenge any Democrat would face in this contest.
| County | Prediction | Population | % of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| County 1 | D+14.0 | 664,744 | 12.89% |
| County 2 | R+4.5 | 423,355 | 8.21% |
| County 3 | D+13.9 | 412,339 | 7.99% |
| County 4 | D+55.1 | 261,608 | 5.07% |
| County 5 | R+17.6 | 241,212 | 4.68% |
| County 6 | R+60.0 | 235,969 | 4.58% |
| County 7 | D+34.6 | 225,894 | 4.38% |
| County 8 | R+25.7 | 187,847 | 3.64% |
| County 9 | R+49.5 | 126,084 | 2.44% |
| County 10 | D+39.8 | 118,942 | 2.31% |
| County | Prediction | Population | % of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| County 1 | D+14.0 | 664,744 | 12.89% |
| County 2 | R+4.5 | 423,355 | 8.21% |
| County 3 | D+13.9 | 412,339 | 7.99% |
| County 4 | D+55.1 | 261,608 | 5.07% |
| County 5 | R+17.6 | 241,212 | 4.68% |
| County 6 | R+60.0 | 235,969 | 4.58% |
| County 7 | D+34.6 | 225,894 | 4.38% |
| County 8 | R+25.7 | 187,847 | 3.64% |
| County 9 | R+49.5 | 126,084 | 2.44% |
| County 10 | D+39.8 | 118,942 | 2.31% |