2026 Tennessee Senate Forecast
2026 Tennessee Senate Forecast
Last Updated: Friday, February 11, 2025, 3:53 PM ET
Race Note:
Incumbent Republican Sen. Bill Hagerty, first elected in 2020 with 62% of the vote, is seeking a second term in 2026. Tennessee, a Southern state entirely within the Bible Belt, has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Bill Clinton and Al Gore carried it in 1996. The state has not been competitive at the presidential level since 2000, when Gore narrowly lost his home state by fewer than 4 points. In 2024, Donald Trump won Tennessee by 30 points, his largest margin in the state to date and an increase from his 23-point victory in 2020. Republicans currently hold both U.S. Senate seats, all statewide offices, and seven of eight U.S. House seats.
Race Note:
Incumbent Republican Sen. Bill Hagerty, first elected in 2020 with 62% of the vote, is seeking a second term in 2026. Tennessee, a Southern state entirely
within the Bible Belt, has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Bill Clinton and Al Gore carried it in 1996.
The state has not been competitive at the presidential level since 2000, when Gore narrowly lost his home state by fewer than 4 points. In 2024, Donald Trump won Tennessee by 30 points, his largest margin in the state to date and an increase from his 23-point victory in 2020. Republicans currently hold both U.S. Senate seats, all statewide offices, and seven of eight U.S. House seats.
| County | Prediction | Population | % of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| County 1 | D+14.0 | 664,744 | 12.89% |
| County 2 | R+4.5 | 423,355 | 8.21% |
| County 3 | D+13.9 | 412,339 | 7.99% |
| County 4 | D+55.1 | 261,608 | 5.07% |
| County 5 | R+17.6 | 241,212 | 4.68% |
| County 6 | R+60.0 | 235,969 | 4.58% |
| County 7 | D+34.6 | 225,894 | 4.38% |
| County 8 | R+25.7 | 187,847 | 3.64% |
| County 9 | R+49.5 | 126,084 | 2.44% |
| County 10 | D+39.8 | 118,942 | 2.31% |
| County | Prediction | Population | % of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| County 1 | D+14.0 | 664,744 | 12.89% |
| County 2 | R+4.5 | 423,355 | 8.21% |
| County 3 | D+13.9 | 412,339 | 7.99% |
| County 4 | D+55.1 | 261,608 | 5.07% |
| County 5 | R+17.6 | 241,212 | 4.68% |
| County 6 | R+60.0 | 235,969 | 4.58% |
| County 7 | D+34.6 | 225,894 | 4.38% |
| County 8 | R+25.7 | 187,847 | 3.64% |
| County 9 | R+49.5 | 126,084 | 2.44% |
| County 10 | D+39.8 | 118,942 | 2.31% |