2026 Kentucky Senate Forecast
2026 Kentucky Senate Forecast
Last Updated: Friday, February 11, 2025, 3:53 PM ET
Race Note:
Incumbent Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell, first elected in 1984, declined to seek an eighth term in 2026 after announcing his retirement from Senate leadership following the 2024 elections. This marks the first open Senate race in Kentucky since 2010 and the first for this Class II seat since 1972. Leading Republican contenders include Congressman Andy Barr, former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron, and businessman Nate Morris. On the Democratic side, 2020 Senate nominee Amy McGrath is running again after raising more than $80 million in her previous bid.
Kentucky hasn’t elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1992, and Republicans maintain control of both Senate seats, most statewide offices, and supermajorities in the state legislature. In the 2024 presidential race, Donald Trump carried Kentucky by 31 points—his largest margin in the state to date and the strongest Republican showing in Kentucky’s history.
Race Note:
Incumbent Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell, first elected in 1984, declined to seek an eighth term in 2026 after announcing his retirement from
Senate leadership following the 2024 elections. This marks the first open Senate race in Kentucky since 2010 and the first for this Class II seat since 1972. Leading Republican contenders include Congressman Andy Barr, former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron, and businessman Nate Morris. On the Democratic side, 2020 Senate nominee Amy McGrath is running again after raising more than $80 million in her previous bid.
Kentucky has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1992, and Republicans maintain control of both Senate seats, most statewide offices, and supermajorities in the state legislature. In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump carried Kentucky by 31 points—his largest margin in the state to date and the strongest Republican showing in Kentucky’s history.
| County | Prediction | Population | % of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| County 1 | D+14.0 | 664,744 | 12.89% |
| County 2 | R+4.5 | 423,355 | 8.21% |
| County 3 | D+13.9 | 412,339 | 7.99% |
| County 4 | D+55.1 | 261,608 | 5.07% |
| County 5 | R+17.6 | 241,212 | 4.68% |
| County 6 | R+60.0 | 235,969 | 4.58% |
| County 7 | D+34.6 | 225,894 | 4.38% |
| County 8 | R+25.7 | 187,847 | 3.64% |
| County 9 | R+49.5 | 126,084 | 2.44% |
| County 10 | D+39.8 | 118,942 | 2.31% |
| County | Prediction | Population | % of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| County 1 | D+14.0 | 664,744 | 12.89% |
| County 2 | R+4.5 | 423,355 | 8.21% |
| County 3 | D+13.9 | 412,339 | 7.99% |
| County 4 | D+55.1 | 261,608 | 5.07% |
| County 5 | R+17.6 | 241,212 | 4.68% |
| County 6 | R+60.0 | 235,969 | 4.58% |
| County 7 | D+34.6 | 225,894 | 4.38% |
| County 8 | R+25.7 | 187,847 | 3.64% |
| County 9 | R+49.5 | 126,084 | 2.44% |
| County 10 | D+39.8 | 118,942 | 2.31% |