2026 Alaska Senate Forecast

2026 Alaska Senate Forecast

Last Updated: Wednesday, April 1, 2026, 11:10 AM ET

Race Note:

Incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, first elected in 2014 and re-elected in 2020 with 54% of the vote, is seeking a third term in 2026. Former Democratic Congresswoman Mary Peltola, who lost her seat in 2022, is challenging Sullivan and is widely considered the strongest challenger anywhere in the country; she led in most early polls after entering the race as Sullivan’s approval rating declined over the past year. Alaska has been represented in the U.S. Senate exclusively by Republicans since 2015.

Since joining the Union in 1959, Alaska has voted Republican in every presidential election except for Lyndon B. Johnson’s 1964 landslide. In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump carried Alaska by 13 points. The 2026 Senate race will again use Alaska’s top-four primary system, with the highest four finishers advancing to a ranked-choice general election, in which voters rank candidates in order of preference until one secures a majority.

Race Note:

Incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, first elected in 2014 and re-elected in 2020 with 54% of the vote, is seeking a third term in 2026. Former Democratic Congresswoman Mary Peltola, who lost her seat in 2022, is challenging Sullivan and is widely considered the strongest challenger anywhere in the country; she led in most early polls after entering the race as Sullivan’s approval rating declined over the past year. Alaska has been represented in the U.S. Senate exclusively by Republicans since 2015.

Since joining the Union in 1959, Alaska has voted Republican in every presidential election except for Lyndon B. Johnson’s 1964 landslide. In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump carried Alaska by 13 points. The 2026 Senate race will again use Alaska’s top-four primary system, with the highest four finishers advancing to a ranked-choice general election, in which voters rank candidates in order of preference until one secures a majority.

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Alaska
US Senate Forecast
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EPO forecasts ___________ is favored to win by __%
Candidate
Projection
R
Dan Sullivan Incumbent
__
__
D
Mary Peltola
__
__
Estimated Vote __
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US Senate Forecast
EPO forecasts ___________ is favored to win by ___%
Candidate
Votes
Pct.
R
Dan Sullivan Incumbent
___
___
D
Mary Peltola
___
___
Estimated Vote ___

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