2026 Ohio Senate Forecast
2026 Ohio Senate Forecast
Last Updated: Wednesday, April 1, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Race Note:
The 2026 United States Senate special election in Ohio will fill the seat vacated by Republican Sen. JD Vance following his election as vice president in 2024. Governor Mike DeWine appointed then–Lieutenant Governor Jon Husted to the Senate, and Husted is running as the unelected incumbent. Democrats recruited former Sen. Sherrod Brown, their strongest statewide figure and the only candidate seen as capable of making the race competitive.
Ohio, once a national bellwether, has shifted decisively to the right over the past decade after voting twice for Barack Obama. Donald Trump carried the state by 11 points in 2024—his largest margin there—and Republicans now hold both Senate seats, every statewide office, and majorities in both chambers of the state legislature. The race will test whether any Democrat can still contend in a state that has moved firmly into the Republican column.
Race Note:
The 2026 United States Senate special election in Ohio will fill the seat vacated by Republican Sen. JD Vance following his election as vice president in
2024. Governor Mike DeWine appointed then–Lieutenant Governor Jon Husted to the Senate, and Husted is running as the unelected incumbent. Democrats recruited former Sen. Sherrod Brown, their strongest statewide figure and the only candidate seen as capable of making the race competitive.
Ohio, once a national bellwether, has shifted decisively to the right over the past decade after voting twice for Barack Obama. Donald Trump carried the state by 11 points in 2024—his largest margin there—and Republicans now hold both Senate seats, every statewide office, and majorities in both chambers of the state legislature. The race will test whether any Democrat can still contend in a state that has moved firmly into the Republican column.
| County | Prediction | Population | % of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| County 1 | D+14.0 | 664,744 | 12.89% |
| County 2 | R+4.5 | 423,355 | 8.21% |
| County 3 | D+13.9 | 412,339 | 7.99% |
| County 4 | D+55.1 | 261,608 | 5.07% |
| County 5 | R+17.6 | 241,212 | 4.68% |
| County 6 | R+60.0 | 235,969 | 4.58% |
| County 7 | D+34.6 | 225,894 | 4.38% |
| County 8 | R+25.7 | 187,847 | 3.64% |
| County 9 | R+49.5 | 126,084 | 2.44% |
| County 10 | D+39.8 | 118,942 | 2.31% |
| County | Prediction | Population | % of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| County 1 | D+14.0 | 664,744 | 12.89% |
| County 2 | R+4.5 | 423,355 | 8.21% |
| County 3 | D+13.9 | 412,339 | 7.99% |
| County 4 | D+55.1 | 261,608 | 5.07% |
| County 5 | R+17.6 | 241,212 | 4.68% |
| County 6 | R+60.0 | 235,969 | 4.58% |
| County 7 | D+34.6 | 225,894 | 4.38% |
| County 8 | R+25.7 | 187,847 | 3.64% |
| County 9 | R+49.5 | 126,084 | 2.44% |
| County 10 | D+39.8 | 118,942 | 2.31% |
It would be cool if there was some sort of graph that tracks the projection as it changes overtime.