2026 New Mexico Senate Forecast
2026 New Mexico Senate Forecast
Last Updated: Friday, March 27, 2025, 1:40 PM ET
Race Note:
Incumbent Democratic Sen. Ben Ray Luján, first elected in 2020 with 52% of the vote, is seeking a second term in 2026. New Mexico has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 2008. Democrats currently hold all statewide offices, both U.S. Senate seats, all three U.S. House seats, and majorities in both chambers of the state legislature. The last Republican to win a statewide race was in 2016.
In the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris carried New Mexico by 6 points—the narrowest Democratic margin since 2004—reflecting modest erosion in Hispanic support. Despite being the most Hispanic state in the nation, New Mexico largely bucked the national trend of heavily Hispanic states shifting sharply to the right, maintaining its Democratic lean even as neighboring states moved more Republican.
Race Note:
Incumbent Democratic Sen. Ben Ray Luján, first elected in 2020 with 52% of the vote, is seeking a second term in 2026. New Mexico has voted
Democratic in every presidential election since 2008. Democrats currently hold all statewide offices, both U.S. Senate seats, all three U.S. House seats, and majorities in both chambers of the state legislature. The last Republican to win a statewide race was in 2016.
In the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris carried New Mexico by 6 points—the narrowest Democratic margin since 2004—reflecting modest erosion in Hispanic support. Despite being the most Hispanic state in the nation, New Mexico largely bucked the national trend of heavily Hispanic states shifting sharply to the right, maintaining its Democratic lean even as neighboring states moved more Republican.
| County | Prediction | Population | % of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| County 1 | D+14.0 | 664,744 | 12.89% |
| County 2 | R+4.5 | 423,355 | 8.21% |
| County 3 | D+13.9 | 412,339 | 7.99% |
| County 4 | D+55.1 | 261,608 | 5.07% |
| County 5 | R+17.6 | 241,212 | 4.68% |
| County 6 | R+60.0 | 235,969 | 4.58% |
| County 7 | D+34.6 | 225,894 | 4.38% |
| County 8 | R+25.7 | 187,847 | 3.64% |
| County 9 | R+49.5 | 126,084 | 2.44% |
| County 10 | D+39.8 | 118,942 | 2.31% |
| County | Prediction | Population | % of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| County 1 | D+14.0 | 664,744 | 12.89% |
| County 2 | R+4.5 | 423,355 | 8.21% |
| County 3 | D+13.9 | 412,339 | 7.99% |
| County 4 | D+55.1 | 261,608 | 5.07% |
| County 5 | R+17.6 | 241,212 | 4.68% |
| County 6 | R+60.0 | 235,969 | 4.58% |
| County 7 | D+34.6 | 225,894 | 4.38% |
| County 8 | R+25.7 | 187,847 | 3.64% |
| County 9 | R+49.5 | 126,084 | 2.44% |
| County 10 | D+39.8 | 118,942 | 2.31% |