2026 New Jersey Senate Forecast
2026 New Jersey Senate Forecast
Last Updated: Friday, February 11, 2025, 3:53 PM ET
Race Note:
Incumbent Democratic Sen. Cory Booker, first elected in a 2013 special election and re-elected in 2014 and 2020, is seeking a third full term in 2026. New Jersey, a densely populated Northeastern state, has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1992, usually by double digits.
In the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris carried the state by just under 6 points—the narrowest Democratic margin since 2004 and the closest a Republican has come to winning New Jersey since 1992. The shift reflected strong Republican gains among Hispanic and Italian American voters, particularly in the state’s majority-Hispanic towns, which swung about 25 points to the right. Despite this rightward movement, New Jersey remains a Democratic-leaning state at the federal level, and Booker enters the race as the clear favorite for re-election.
Race Note:
Incumbent Democratic Sen. Cory Booker, first elected in a 2013 special election and re-elected in 2014 and 2020, is seeking a third full term in
2026. New Jersey, a densely populated Northeastern state, has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1992, usually by double digits.
In the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris carried the state by just under 6 points—the narrowest Democratic margin since 2004 and the closest a Republican has come to winning New Jersey since 1992. The shift reflected strong Republican gains among Hispanic and Italian American voters, particularly in the state’s majority-Hispanic towns, which swung about 25 points to the right. Despite this rightward movement, New Jersey remains a Democratic-leaning state at the federal level, and Booker enters the race as the clear favorite for re-election.
| County | Prediction | Population | % of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| County 1 | D+14.0 | 664,744 | 12.89% |
| County 2 | R+4.5 | 423,355 | 8.21% |
| County 3 | D+13.9 | 412,339 | 7.99% |
| County 4 | D+55.1 | 261,608 | 5.07% |
| County 5 | R+17.6 | 241,212 | 4.68% |
| County 6 | R+60.0 | 235,969 | 4.58% |
| County 7 | D+34.6 | 225,894 | 4.38% |
| County 8 | R+25.7 | 187,847 | 3.64% |
| County 9 | R+49.5 | 126,084 | 2.44% |
| County 10 | D+39.8 | 118,942 | 2.31% |
| County | Prediction | Population | % of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| County 1 | D+14.0 | 664,744 | 12.89% |
| County 2 | R+4.5 | 423,355 | 8.21% |
| County 3 | D+13.9 | 412,339 | 7.99% |
| County 4 | D+55.1 | 261,608 | 5.07% |
| County 5 | R+17.6 | 241,212 | 4.68% |
| County 6 | R+60.0 | 235,969 | 4.58% |
| County 7 | D+34.6 | 225,894 | 4.38% |
| County 8 | R+25.7 | 187,847 | 3.64% |
| County 9 | R+49.5 | 126,084 | 2.44% |
| County 10 | D+39.8 | 118,942 | 2.31% |