2026 Oregon Senate Forecast
2026 Oregon Senate Forecast
Last Updated: Friday, February 11, 2025, 3:53 PM ET
Race Note:
Incumbent Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley, first elected in 2008 and most recently re-elected in 2020 with 57% of the vote, is seeking a fourth term in 2026. Oregon has consistently voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1988 and has not elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since 2002. Democrats currently hold both Senate seats, all statewide offices, all but one U.S. House seat, and supermajorities in both chambers of the Oregon Legislative Assembly.
In the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris carried Oregon by 14 points. Oregon and neighboring Washington largely resisted the broader national red wave, with several Oregon counties even moving left.
Race Note:
Incumbent Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley, first elected in 2008 and most recently re-elected in 2020 with 57% of the vote, is seeking a fourth term in
2026. Oregon has consistently voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1988 and has not elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since 2002. Democrats currently hold both Senate seats, all statewide offices, all but one U.S. House seat, and supermajorities in both chambers of the Oregon Legislative Assembly.
In the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris carried Oregon by 14 points. Oregon and neighboring Washington largely resisted the broader national red wave, with several Oregon counties even moving left.
| County | Prediction | Population | % of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| County 1 | D+14.0 | 664,744 | 12.89% |
| County 2 | R+4.5 | 423,355 | 8.21% |
| County 3 | D+13.9 | 412,339 | 7.99% |
| County 4 | D+55.1 | 261,608 | 5.07% |
| County 5 | R+17.6 | 241,212 | 4.68% |
| County 6 | R+60.0 | 235,969 | 4.58% |
| County 7 | D+34.6 | 225,894 | 4.38% |
| County 8 | R+25.7 | 187,847 | 3.64% |
| County 9 | R+49.5 | 126,084 | 2.44% |
| County 10 | D+39.8 | 118,942 | 2.31% |
| County | Prediction | Population | % of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| County 1 | D+14.0 | 664,744 | 12.89% |
| County 2 | R+4.5 | 423,355 | 8.21% |
| County 3 | D+13.9 | 412,339 | 7.99% |
| County 4 | D+55.1 | 261,608 | 5.07% |
| County 5 | R+17.6 | 241,212 | 4.68% |
| County 6 | R+60.0 | 235,969 | 4.58% |
| County 7 | D+34.6 | 225,894 | 4.38% |
| County 8 | R+25.7 | 187,847 | 3.64% |
| County 9 | R+49.5 | 126,084 | 2.44% |
| County 10 | D+39.8 | 118,942 | 2.31% |