2026 Massachusetts Senate Forecast

2026 Massachusetts Senate Forecast

Last Updated: Wednesday, April 1, 2026, 11:10 AM ET

Race Note:

Incumbent Democratic Sen. Ed Markey, first elected in 2013 and re-elected in 2020 with 66% of the vote, is seeking a third full term in 2026. Markey, who will be 80 at the time of the election, faces a primary challenge from Congressman Seth Moulton, while Congresswoman Ayanna Pressley and Boston Mayor Michelle Wu are also considering bids.

Massachusetts has been a Democratic stronghold since 1960 and has ranked among the top three most Democratic states in each of the last three presidential elections. In 2024, Kamala Harris carried Massachusetts by 25 points, winning every county but posting an 8-point decline from Joe Biden’s 2020 margin, part of a broader rightward shift across several blue states. Despite this, Massachusetts remains one of the most reliably Democratic states in the country, and the eventual Democratic nominee will be overwhelmingly favored in the general election.

Race Note:

Massachusetts has been a Democratic stronghold since 1960 and has ranked among the top three most Democratic states in each of the last three presidential elections. In 2024, Kamala Harris carried Massachusetts by 25 points, winning every county but posting an 8-point decline from Joe Biden’s 2020 margin, part of a broader rightward shift across several blue states. Despite this, Massachusetts remains one of the most reliably Democratic states in the country, and the eventual Democratic nominee will be overwhelmingly favored in the general election.

Incumbent Democratic Sen. Ed Markey, first elected in 2013 and re-elected in 2020 with 66% of the vote, is seeking a third full term in 2026. Markey, who will be 80 at the time of the election, faces a primary challenge from Congressman Seth Moulton, while Congresswoman Ayanna Pressley and Boston Mayor Michelle Wu are also considering bids.

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Massachusetts
US Senate Forecast
Subscribe for rating
EPO forecasts ___________ is favored to win by __%
Candidate
Projection
D
Ed Markey Incumbent
__
__
R
John Deaton
__
__
Estimated Vote __
Membership Required
Subscribe or upgrade your membership to "Deep Dive" or "Insider" for EPO's live polling average, prediction market tracker, expert forecasts, recent election results, trends, and demographics; plus my county map and predictions.
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County Prediction Population % of State
County 1 D+14.0 664,744 12.89%
County 2 R+4.5 423,355 8.21%
County 3 D+13.9 412,339 7.99%
County 4 D+55.1 261,608 5.07%
County 5 R+17.6 241,212 4.68%
County 6 R+60.0 235,969 4.58%
County 7 D+34.6 225,894 4.38%
County 8 R+25.7 187,847 3.64%
County 9 R+49.5 126,084 2.44%
County 10 D+39.8 118,942 2.31%
Unlock the 2026 Massachusetts Forecast for $1
for access to state-by-state predictions, poll averages, county maps, demographic data, and more.
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Massachusetts Subscribe for rating
US Senate Forecast
EPO forecasts ___________ is favored to win by ___%
Candidate
Votes
Pct.
D
Ed Markey Incumbent
___
___
R John Deaton
___
___
Estimated Vote ___
Membership Required
Subscribe or upgrade your membership to "Deep Dive" or "Insider" for EPO's live polling average, prediction market tracker, expert forecasts, recent election results, trends, and demographics; plus my county map and predictions.
View Membership Levels
County Prediction Population % of State
County 1 D+14.0 664,744 12.89%
County 2 R+4.5 423,355 8.21%
County 3 D+13.9 412,339 7.99%
County 4 D+55.1 261,608 5.07%
County 5 R+17.6 241,212 4.68%
County 6 R+60.0 235,969 4.58%
County 7 D+34.6 225,894 4.38%
County 8 R+25.7 187,847 3.64%
County 9 R+49.5 126,084 2.44%
County 10 D+39.8 118,942 2.31%

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